Traders on Polymarket are assigning roughly a one-in-six chance that former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán will be arrested or detained before the end of 2026.
Under the Polymarket market ‘Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31’, launched on 7 July, ‘yes’ shares traded at 18 cents at the time of writing, against 82 cents for the ‘no’ outcome. The market remains relatively small, with about $8,500 in total trading volume, roughly $2,100 traded over the previous 24 hours, and around $18,200 in liquidity. The ‘Yes’ contract is also up five percentage points over the past seven days.
The market’s resolution criteria are broader than the headline suggests. ‘Yes’ resolves if Orbán enters official custody, surrenders in response to an arrest warrant, is booked, is temporarily detained pending a custody decision, or is placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring by 11.59pm ET on 31 December. By contrast, the opening of an investigation, formal communication of suspicion, questioning without detention, indictment, or the issuance of an unexecuted arrest warrant would not satisfy the market rules.
The market launched as the new government led by Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party accelerated its ‘Operation Purgatory’ campaign to dismantle what the prime minister has described as the ‘political and economic mafia’ built during former prime minister Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power, recover allegedly unlawfully diverted public assets, and remove officeholders whom the government regards as pillars of the previous system.
‘The market’s resolution criteria are broader than the headline suggests’
Parliament adopted the so-called 17th amendment to the Fundamental Law on Monday, introducing retrospective 12-year parliamentary term limits, establishing the constitutional basis for the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH), and ending President Tamás Sulyok’s mandate once the amendment enters into force. The bill is currently awaiting Sulyok’s decision on promulgation.
Once established, the NVVH will become an anti-corruption super-agency with unusually broad powers combining asset recovery with investigative and prosecutorial functions. Although no official target list has been published, several figures associated with Viktor Orbán have been publicly identified by government officials as likely priorities for future scrutiny. Importantly, however, the NVVH itself would not have the power to order Orbán’s arrest; any custodial measure would remain a matter for prosecutors and the courts.
Orbán’s Gravest Legal Exposure
Orbán’s most pressing exposure currently, however, comes not from the NVVH, but from the so-called Ukrainian ‘gold convoy’ case. On 5 March, TEK stopped two armoured vehicles carrying $40 million, €35 million, and nine kilograms of gold to Ukraine’s Oschadbank. Seven Ukrainians were hooded, handcuffed, and detained. Authorities cited suspected money laundering, but NAV said it found no evidence of a crime; the case was suspended pending a response from Austria.
The inquiry moved closer to Orbán on 29 June, when former TEK chief János Hajdu became a suspect over seven counts of aggravated unlawful detention. Prosecutors say he kept the Ukrainians in custody for at least nine hours after NAV treated them as witnesses and requested the removal of their handcuffs. Hajdu denies wrongdoing and remains free.
Hajdu reportedly said during his interrogation that Örs Farkas, the intelligence state secretary under Antal Rogán’s Cabinet Office, summoned him to a meeting where the convoy was described as ‘not illegal, but irregular’. A leaked prosecutorial analysis reportedly named Orbán, Farkas, Hajdu, and NAV official Tamás Demeter as decision-makers whose responsibility should be examined. Orbán is not formally a suspect.
‘The most serious theoretical allegation concerns terrorism charges’
The most serious theoretical allegation concerns terrorism charges, but not because the couriers were detained. Section 314(2) of Hungary’s Criminal Code applies when significant assets are controlled to compel another state or public body, and their return depends on compliance with a demand. Oschadbank’s lawyer Lóránt Horváth argues that Hungary used the HUF 27 billion shipment to pressure Ukraine over the Druzhba pipeline, citing former minister János Lázár’s statement linking the seizure to the pipeline closure and saying that the money would not be returned while Hungary awaited its reopening.
Horváth filed a motion earlier in June requesting the arrests of Viktor Orbán, János Hajdu, Örs Farkas, and Tamás Demeter.
For Orbán to face such a charge, prosecutors would need proof that he approved the seizure or retention, knew it was intended to coerce Ukraine, and intended the shipment’s return to depend on Ukrainian compliance. Without that link, unlawful detention or abuse of office would fit more readily than terrorism.
Orbán rejected any wrongdoing and labelled the investigation politically motivated.
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