Reports of renewed successful Ukrainian deep strikes have emerged from several regions of Russia and occupied Crimea overnight into 27 May. Residents of Taganrog in Rostov Oblast, a city on the coast of the Azov Sea about 40 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, reported explosions and thick plumes of smoke rising from multiple parts of the city. Taganrog—founded in the era of Tsar Peter the Great and historically an important strategic port due to its access to the Sea of Azov—today serves primarily as an industrial and logistics hub.
Initial reports indicated that a facility for the maintenance and repair of aircraft equipment had been hit. Similar reports were received from other regions of Russia, including the occupied Crimea and the Tuapse oil refinery.
The Tuapse oil refinery and port is one of Russia’s key strategic and economic centres on the Black Sea coast. Operated by Rosneft, it is the only refinery of its kind in the region, with an annual processing capacity of up to 12 million tons of crude oil. It also plays a crucial role in exporting refined petroleum products and functions as an important maritime terminal: it receives products from several inland Russian refineries while its logistical and railway connections make it a key hub in Krasnodar Krai.
Reports indicate that the facility has once again been targeted. This is already the latest in a series of attacks on Tuapse, causing increasingly severe disruptions to Russia’s energy and export infrastructure, along with significant financial losses and operational disruptions.
Tuapse Under Siege: Repeated Drone Strikes and Industrial Paralysis
Compared to the earlier, intermittent drone attacks of previous years, an intensive Ukrainian drone campaign in spring 2026 severely crippled energy infrastructure in the Tuapse region within a matter of weeks.
On 16 April, Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles struck the refinery, causing a large-scale fire and a complete shutdown of operations. On 20 April, another wave of drones further aggravated the damage: more than 24 fuel tanks were destroyed or severely damaged.
On 28 April, the facility was hit again, prompting evacuations in nearby residential areas. On 1 May, port infrastructure was also affected, and on 27 May, further drone and missile strikes caused explosions and fires in the terminal area.
The series of attacks resulted in a complete shutdown of the refinery, significant environmental damage in the Black Sea region, and estimated losses exceeding 300 million dollars to local Russian oil infrastructure.
Voronezh and Sevastopol: The War Reaches Deeper
Explosions and smoke were also reported from Voronezh, appearing in some accounts near military facilities where Russian air force units are stationed. Voronezh—located in southwestern Russia near the Ukrainian border—is a major city historically known for its role on the front lines of World War II and its ongoing military significance.
In occupied Sevastopol—the Black Sea port city in Crimea and the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, historically a key military stronghold—explosions and damage were also reported, including a burning bank building and damaged residential properties. These reports have not yet been independently confirmed, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not commented on the incidents.
Moscow’s Threats to Kyiv Have Long Been Part of Everyday Reality
According to the Kremlin spokesperson, Russian military strikes against Kyiv may become systemic in the future, though they will not follow a predictable pattern.
Diplomatic sources report that Russia has issued warnings to foreign missions in Kyiv suggesting the possibility of further strikes, although Western countries do not interpret these as evacuation signals. The US Secretary of State said that during a phone call, the Russian foreign minister conveyed Vladimir Putin’s message to the American leadership regarding expected strikes and diplomatic warnings.
Amid increasingly intense Russian threats, Moscow often portrays its actions as previously restrained, even though the scale and frequency of attacks on Kyiv have already been persistently high. This is not a future scenario. This is the current reality of Kyiv.
Since early 2026, several major waves of drone and missile attacks have targeted the capital. In early January, hundreds of systems were deployed over a few days, causing at least five deaths and more than 30 injuries, along with severe damage to energy and heating infrastructure.
In mid-January, another wave followed with more than 300 drones and missiles, resulting in further fatalities and damage to residential buildings and transport infrastructure. At the end of February, another combined strike hit the city, again causing deaths and civilian injuries.
In mid-April, a major attack killed four people, including a 12-year-old child, and left dozens injured, while residential buildings, a hotel, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged.
The most intense period came in May. In mid-May, more than 650 drones and 56 missiles struck the city, leaving 24 dead and 48 injured, including the collapse of an entire residential building.
At the end of May, approximately 600 drones and 90 missiles hit Kyiv, causing more than 90 injuries and affecting over 40 different urban sites, including metro stations, markets, and utilities.
All this applies only to Kyiv, while nationwide damage and losses paint an even more severe picture.
New Threats
Alongside Russian messaging, the Belarusian leadership claims that Ukrainian military drones regularly cross the border, while Ukrainian border guards firmly reject these claims, calling them politically motivated narratives.
According to the Belarusian military leadership, more than 100 incidents occurred in a short period requiring air defence responses. They claim that some drones appear near the border and then crash on Belarusian territory. The Ukrainian side states that these claims are not true and that Minsk is reinforcing Russia’s narrative.
It is undeniable that the Russian side will continue to be capable of inflicting significant damage in the future. One example is Russia’s rapid expansion of solid fuel production for missiles and artillery, according to internal documents from the Perm Powder Plant.
Production has increased several times compared to 2023 levels, and by 2026, the plant plans to produce 10,000 tons of rocket fuel annually.
According to the documents, Russia’s defence industry still relies heavily on foreign raw materials. Suppliers include companies from Uzbekistan, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, and China. Imported materials are used in the production of propellants for missiles, artillery ammunition, and various weapons systems.
‘Russian aggression is not a reaction to the conflict, but rather its structural and persistent source’
The Perm Powder Plant is effectively operating in full wartime mode. The share of civilian production has significantly declined, while revenue and workforce size have risen sharply. Military production increased by nearly 200% in a single year.
According to the report, this indicates that Russia is not only aiming to sustain its current war operations but is also preparing for longer-term and more intense military conflicts. It also highlights that the long-term militarization and industrial preparation of the conflict did not begin with Ukrainian deep strikes and is not their consequence.
This clearly shows that Russian aggression is not a reaction to the conflict, but rather its structural and persistent source.
Information Warfare and Shifting Attention
Still, increasingly aggressive communication and a strong narrative emphasizing civilian casualties from Ukrainian attacks—while Russian operations have caused significantly greater destruction—suggest that Moscow is deliberately shaping public perception.
Statements by the Russian foreign minister and Alexander Lukashenko indicate that part of the goal is to divert attention from recent significant losses.
‘The first 500 targets have already been identified’: Ukrainian Warning to Belarus
‘The dog that barks does not bite. The predator bird is different. The first 500 targets have already been identified. Free and practical advice: do not interfere in Ukraine’s affairs,’ Robert Brovdi—known by the call sign ‘Madyar’—wrote in an Instagram post.
On 26 May, Brovdi stated that Ukrainian forces had identified around 500 potential targets in Belarus, amid growing concerns that Belarus could become more directly involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine. He did not specify what types of targets these were, nor under what circumstances they would be struck.
In recent weeks, Kyiv has repeatedly warned that Belarus may become more deeply involved in the war, as Russia and Belarus continue expanding military cooperation and conducting joint exercises, including nuclear-related manoeuvres. President Volodymyr Zelensky has also warned Belarus not to take a greater role in the war, stating that there would be ‘consequences’ and that Ukraine is prepared to take ‘preventive measures’ against potential threats.
On 21 May, Belarus’s Ministry of Defence claimed that Russia had deployed nuclear warheads to Belarusian territory as part of joint exercises. Lukashenko, meanwhile, rejected claims that Belarus is becoming more involved in the war and said he is ready to meet Zelensky ‘anywhere’ to normalize relations between the two countries. The warning and concerns about Belarus’s role coincide with a visit by exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv on 26 May.
‘For the first time, mathematics is on Ukraine’s side’
Following Brovdi’s successful operations, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a radio interview that current casualty ratios place Ukraine in its strongest position since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Stubb said the first year of the war was about survival for Ukraine, the next about resistance, and now ‘mathematics’ has become the decisive factor.
He claimed that currently, there are eight Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian soldier killed, while public support for the war in Russia is declining. In his view, these factors give Ukraine a more favourable strategic position at present.
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