Hungarian Conservative

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has carried out a government reshuffle unprecedented since the outbreak of the war, with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba being the most notable victim. Ukraine’s situation on the battlefield is becoming increasingly difficult, and many believe the Kursk incursion was a significant mistake, ultimately falling on Zelenskyy’s shoulders. Thus the changes in his government may be part of the Ukrainian president’s efforts to sideline political opponents and silence dissenting voices.

There are a number of conventional weapons whose appearance in US adversaries’ hands can cause serious damage to American interests all around the world. It is not difficult to imagine the threat of hypersonic anti-ship weapons, barely interceptable by contemporary air defence weaponry, on commercial ships, not only on the Red Sea. Arming let’s say Mexican drug cartels with modern anti-tank equipment could also seriously hamper US efforts to block the flow of drugs into the country.

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto’s recent remarks voicing concern about the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory have drawn ire from Italian commentators. Under Giorgia Meloni’s leadership Italy has consistently backed Ukraine in both rhetoric and material support. However, her public position also reflects the constraints imposed by her governing coalition, which includes pro-Russia politicians. Meloni’s balancing act requires deft political manoeuvring as she seeks to maintain support for Ukraine while navigating a divided public opinion at home.

Both Ukraine’s desperate actions to bring the war to the Russian populace and the humiliation inflicted on Russia by demonstrating its inability to push Ukrainians back to behind its 1991 borders might actually signal the war is heading to an end. As neither side seems to be able to decide the outcome of the conflict with military means, the Ukrainian attempt can be interpreted as a last effort to capture more bargaining chips before the inevitable peace talks. 

The European Commission will not convene a consultative forum on the dispute between Ukraine and EU members states Hungary and Slovakia over the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine. Brussels’ reasoning is that there is no immediate threat to the energy security of these two countries due to Kyiv’s decision to halt the supplies. These developments indicate that the European Commission has blatantly sided with a non-EU member against two member states, jeopardizing their energy security.

Hungary and Slovakia are taking joint action against Ukraine over its halting of Russian oil shipments to the two EU member states. This move seriously threatens the long-term energy security of both countries, and is considered a violation of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement by Budapest and Bratislava.

In December last year a new law created a distinct category for ‘EU minorities’ in Ukraine (such as the Hungarian and Romanian ethnic minorities) that now have access to more privileges than for instance the Russian minority. Later, as a sign of goodwill to better relations, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó visited Ukraine. Now, with the meeting between Orbán and Zelenskyy the two country’s relationship is officially warming up. If in the long-term Budapest does manage to considerably contribute to peace between Russia and Ukraine, as it clearly intends to, it might have a long-lasting positive impact on bilateral relations.

‘The Hungarian presidency has just begun, but every opportunity is being seized to obstruct it, as it offers the Hungarian government the chance to present its vision of an alternative Europe to the entire continent,’ the Center for Fundamental Rights stress in their analysis. They also note that the Hungarian PM’s visit to Kyiv took the international press by surprise, as the liberal media has consistently and falsely portrayed Hungary’s stance as pro-Russian from the start, a claim that Viktor Orbán has now clearly disproved.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider a time-bound ceasefire during talks in Kyiv on Tuesday. The two leaders discussed contentious issues between their countries, both described the meeting as constructive.

‘Else than the Azov militia, the most well-known example of radicals fighting in Ukraine is that of Denis Kapustin (also known as Denis Nikitin), the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), who led multiple raids into Russia from Ukraine. According to POLITICO, Kapustin is regarded as ‘one of the most influential neo-Nazi activists’ in today’s era. The praise these military formations received in the West for their reckless actions in Belgorod, without recognition of the dangers of their radical ideology, also feeds into Russian propaganda and helps it draw a parallel between the alleged past and present support the West gives to Nazis.’

A turnabout in the Hungarian stance seems unlikely at the moment. The Hungarian government has consistently vetoed further military assistance to Ukraine as well, and will most probably not change course regarding Ukrainian accession to the EU either under the Hungarian rotating presidency.

Despite the significant support Ukraine receives from its Western allies, the Russian military industry seems to be still superior in terms of quantities. According to reports, five Russian responses are received for every shot fired by Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine’s Western allies produce artillery ammunition not only more expensively but at a much slower rate than Russia. According to predictions, in 2024, Russia will be able to produce 4.5 million artillery shells, while the EU and the US together only about 1.3 million.

‘Throughout the West today…there is a mania for forgetting our civilizational past as an intolerable moral burden. Western elites regard migrants, sexual minorities, and other outsiders as bearers of ‘‘the richness of cultural diversity’’, but do not see the culturally diverse minorities already within Europe itself in the same way.’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the decree expanding the country’s martial law on 23 April, which, in practice, means the derogation from certain obligations undertaken by the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. The new decree also includes limitations on the consular services that Ukrainians can access abroad if their military registration documents are not updated.

The Ukrainian government is working on blacklisting 14 products by the Hungarian pharmaceutical company Richter. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó believes that this has no professional basis, only political, and spoke up against the planned bannings at the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Luxembourg.

With increasing international pressure, Ukraine is set to abandon its list of ‘international sponsors of the war’. For a significant period, this list featured the largest Hungarian bank, OTP, leading to considerable tension between Hungary and Ukraine.

‘Is Pope Francis correct to suggest that this is a war Ukraine cannot win, and so, it should start seeking a truce with Russia? Ending the war, even a ceasefire, is not an act of cowardice, especially when there is no end in sight.’

Following Emmanuel Macron’s statement on sending Western troops to Ukraine, NATO allies are distancing themselves from the French President. In the run-up to the European elections, radical pro-war rhetoric may have serious consequences—the case of the Hungarian opposition in the 2022 parliamentary elections is a cautionary tale.

‘If we disrupt the triple unity of competitiveness, preserving the quality of our created world, and ensuring food security, then the system will not be sustainable. Farmer protests draw attention to the fact that access to agricultural subsidies is too difficult, and with the prioritization of Ukrainian interests, European farmers feel that they are not receiving sufficient protection,’ Agriculture Minister István Nagy stated in a press briefing in Brussels.

While out on bond in August, Lira said in a YouTube video that if he is convicted, he would certainly perish in a Ukrainian labour camp. Tragically, he was wrong—he died while awaiting trial, in the captivity of the Zelenskyy regime.

‘In the capital city in particular, Ukrainians signal in a variety of small ways their desire to belong to the West. Kyiv could compete with any European capital when it comes to the number of EU flags seen on the streets. At European Square, not far from Maidan, in the middle of a roundabout the four-pointed star of NATO stands atop a metal pillar surrounded by a circle of Ukrainian and EU flags.’

The Biden administration has shifted its strategy in Ukraine; a Ukrainian victory is no longer a priority, and instead, Kyiv will be brought to the negotiating table. If, two years ago, the leaders in Washington and Brussels had heeded their common sense—or better yet, listened to the Hungarians—millions of lives could have been spared.

Recently, the Danube Institute co-hosted an event with Helena History Press where Danish author Jaap Scholten talked about his personal experiences while travelling throughout Ukraine in the first six months of the war.

It seems that even the most vocal supporters of energy sanctions do not want to give up Russian gas at all cost, which has led to some unusual but rather obvious solutions. Today, fossil fuels from Russia are being transported via proxies to pro-sanctions Western Europe. Also, despite loud promises, the vast majority of Western companies operating in Russia have not left the country at all, at least according to a Swiss study from 2022.

OTP Bank made several commitments regarding its future plans in the Russian market in an agreement concluded with the Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention, mediated by the European External Action Service. The Ukrainian authorities have removed the bank from the list of international sponsors of the war, and stated that now they expect OTP Bank ‘to promptly adhere to the agreement.’

In her remarks at the UN, the Hungarian President noted: ‘We know that peace can only become a real possibility when at least one party realized that the time for negotiations has come.’ She added: ‘We cannot decide on behalf of the Ukrainians how much sacrifice they are willing to make, but it is our duty to represent our nation’s desire for peace.’

Kyiv stayed true to its doubtful reputation and promised ‘appropriate responses’ to the three V4 countries extending their ban on Ukrainian agri-food imports. ‘If the decisions of our neighbours are not neighbourly, Ukraine will respond in a civilized manner,’ Zelensky said.

The next few weeks will show the true situation on the front: success in Ukraine will bring the war closer to its end; failure could result in a stand-off and the conflict dragging on for years.

After meeting with his Bulgarian, Slovak and Romanian counterparts to coordinate their joint stance on the extension of the ban on Ukrainian grain imports, István Nagy stated in a video that Hungarian farmers can count on the government to defend their interests.

‘The Maidan—‘the square’ as people refer to it—became a plaza of fallen heroes in 2014: pictures commemorating the 108 protestors killed by law enforcement during the Revolution of Dignity remind everyone that for Ukrainians the struggle for self-determination didn’t start in February 2022.’