In recent decades, Europe has faced no shortage of challenges, from economic malaise to mass migration and political upheaval, but perhaps none is more profound than its ongoing demographic crisis. Rapid population ageing and decline, resultant labour shortages, and emigration have become major concerns for all European countries.
Both the short-term and long-term extent of these demographic changes will determine Europe’s future position in the shifting world order. The methods by and success with which Europe attempts to solve this population problem will determine its geopolitical manoeuvrability for the next few decades. A serious misstep in this area could doom Europe to a perpetually unfavourable global position.
The most obvious evidence of Europe’s demographic malaise is the radical shrinking of its share of the world’s population. Whereas 50 years ago Europeans made up one-fifth of the global population, today it is less than one-tenth. The EU has shrunk from 13 per cent of the world population in 1950 to less than 6 per cent, and its fertility rate has declined from an already meagre 1.54 in 2011 to 1.38 in 2023, well below the 2.1 replacement level.
Despite these undeniable demographic trends, there is still no consensus among EU governments on tackling Europe’s most existential crises. This lack of consensus is primarily due to a plethora of misconceptions about demography. While antinatalist arguments are numerous, five key misconceptions stand out and deserve to be thoroughly debunked:
1. Since the world’s population is growing, overpopulation should be our concern.
While the total global population is growing, the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 estimates an 80 per cent chance it will peak in the 21st century. This is a dramatic increase from the 30 per cent chance estimated a decade ago. Additionally, the world’s population is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller in 2100, around 700 million less people, than was estimated a decade ago, and one in four people already live in a country whose population has peaked.
‘The real challenge isn’t the population decline itself, but the profound social and economic consequences that will follow’
Furthermore, women today have on average one less child than in 1990 and more than 50 per cent of countries have a below replacement fertility rate. Currently, almost a fifth of countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain experience ‘ultra-low fertility’, meaning a fertility rate lower than 1.4. For such populations, there is only a 0.1 per cent chance that their fertility rate will rise to 2.1 or more in the next 30 years. The real challenge isn’t the population decline itself, but the profound social and economic consequences that will follow as global growth trends reverse in the coming decades.
2. Population decline can help mitigate the risk of climate-related challenges.
This extreme antinatalist reasoning is as short-sighted as it is dangerous. Preventing climate catastrophe hinges not on population decline, but on technological innovation, and such progress depends on the creativity and energy of younger generations.
Without enough children today, there won’t be enough young minds tomorrow to develop the clean technologies our future depends on. History shows that inventors tend to be most productive in their 20s and 30s; think of Isaac Newton’s work on calculus, Thomas Edison’s phonograph, Marie Curie’s discovery of radium and polonium, or Alexander Graham Bell’s invention of the telephone, to name just a few.
A more recent example is Alex Rodrigues, who as a teenager built Canada’s first self-driving vehicle, transforming traditional trucking into a safer and more environmentally friendly mode of transport. Another is 22-year-old American Erin Smith, who won the European Patent Office’s Young Inventors Prize for developing an AI application that detects subtle facial expressions linked to Parkinson’s disease, enabling early diagnosis.
3. Technological advancement will solve any serious economic consequences of adverse demographic trends.
Global life expectancy has risen to 73.3 years, an 8.4-year increase since 1995. By 2080, the population aged 65 and over is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing those under 18. Additionally, by the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 and above are expected to reach 265 million, exceeding the population of infants aged one year or younger.
As a result, the world’s youth will be burdened by the growing eldercare crisis, diverting their potential from ground-breaking discoveries and sustainable development. In the UK, for example, it is estimated that within a few decades there will only be two workers for every pensioner. In Italy by the end of the century, that ratio is expected to drop to just one worker per pensioner, making a dramatic increase in taxes inevitable.
While population growth cannot continue forever, Europe is not prepared for such a rapid decline. Although future technologies may eventually replace large segments of the workface, Europe has not yet reached that stage. Until then, it is important for the population to keep growing, even if at a slower rate. Moreover, problems caused by ageing and declining populations are easier to manage when they unfold gradually.
4. Mass migration is the solution to demographic collapse.
European governments are divided on the proper approach to the demographic crisis. While some favour natalist and pro-family policies, others favour liberal immigration policies and mass immigration.
Mass immigration, however, only boosts fertility rates and eases labour shortages in the short term. Global demographic trends show fertility rates in migrants’ home countries are declining, and migrants’ fertility rates drop after their arrival, creating a cycle of ongoing reliance on immigration to support the economy.
‘Mass immigration…only boosts fertility rates and eases labour shortages in the short term’
The effects of migration are also quite unpredictable. Mass migration can quickly and radically alter a host country’s cultural and ethnic makeup. This results in an entirely new set of problems plaguing ranging from integration difficulties to social strife, that drain time and resources. Besides its questionable economic benefits, the social consequences of mass migration is clearly negative.
Furthermore, if a government considers accepting mass migration, it should consult its citizens. Although immigrant-sceptic countries like Hungary are often seen as fundamentally different from Western Europe, surveys show they actually share many core values. A 2022 poll by the Youth Research Institute found that citizens in France, Germany, the UK, and Italy hold values strikingly similar to those of Hungarians.
The results were notable because, despite European liberal elites’ efforts to push a ‘progressive’ agenda, large majorities still prefer gradual changes to their society rather than radical and revolutionary changes. When asked about Europe’s biggest challenges, those surveyed agree that poverty should be alleviated through job creation (85 per cent) rather than welfare (13 per cent), the future of humanity depends on mutual co-operation (73 per cent) rather than technological progress (20 per cent), and demographic issues should be tackled through nativist policies (61 per cent) rather than immigration (24 per cent).
5. Pro-Natalist Policies Do Not Work
Many advocates of mass migration over natalist policies argue that pro-natalist measures don’t work. However, Hungary, one of the pioneers of natalist policy, demonstrates that while not perfect or a complete solution, such policies can produce significant demographic improvements.
It is important to note that Hungary experienced a paradigm shift in 2010, moving its family policy from a left-wing to a right-wing approach focused on population growth, while retaining elements such as free childcare, free school books and family allowances.
The key divide between Hungary’s political left and right lies in their economic and philosophical differences. The left addresses social inequality by expanding welfare, while the right focuses on building a society and economy rooted in work and self-sufficiency, championing ‘jobs instead of welfare’. This vision extends to Hungary’s family policy, which emphasizes employment as the most effective way to support families.
‘Family policy is not just one of many policies: it is the cornerstone of effective governance’
The Hungarian government was the first to recognize that, given the serious consequences of population decline, the well-being of Hungarian families will be the most important issue in the coming decades. The future of economic, social and environmental sustainability is deeply linked to strong families. Family policy is not just one of many policies: it is the cornerstone of effective governance. Demographic problems cannot be solved by technology and mass immigration alone. The Hungarian approach views families not as an economic burden, but as a vital resource, and a guarantee of the nation’s survival.
The short-term effects of Hungary’s family policy have been quite positive. Hungary has seen the largest increase in willingness to have children and marry within the EU. The share of children born in wedlock has increased, while the divorce rate among couples with children has decreased. The fertility rate improved from a record low 1.23 in 2011 to 1.61 in 2021, and Hungary went from having the lowest EU birthrate in 2011 to the third highest in 2023. Despite a drastic decline in the number of women of childbearing age, this smaller group has given birth to more children than previous generations. Parallel to the rise in the birthrate, the number of abortions has almost halved. Without this policy shift, Hungary’s pre-2010 negative demographic trend likely would have continued.
However, the challenges Hungary faces in 2025 differ significantly from those before 2010. Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and global economic difficulties have shaken families’ sense of security and hindered efforts to boost demographic recovery. Considering these challenges, it is clear that Hungary’s family policy is far from finished and must remain a top priority for future Hungarian governments.
As debates over Europe’s demographic crisis intensify, it is crucial to recognize and debunk common myths about the crisis, mass migration, and natalism. The facts and surveys clearly show that mass migration is neither a viable solution nor broadly supported by Europeans. In contrast, natalism offers a more stable, lasting path forward and remains the key to navigating this demographic storm. Positive trends in pro-natalist countries like Hungary demonstrate its potential, underscoring the need for increased funding, research, and commitment to natalist policies to steer the West away from the demographic abyss.
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