The Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will hold an interest rate-setting meeting this week, while the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is due to publish data on the labour market and investment. The Finance Ministry will also release a detailed report on the position of the central sub-system of the state budget at the end of July.
The MNB’s Monetary Council will meet on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the central bank to continue its rate-cutting cycle.
At its previous meeting on 22 July, the council cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent. Both sides of the interest rate corridor were also reduced by 25 basis points, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 4.75 per cent and the overnight lending rate to 6.75 per cent. The decision was in line with analysts’ expectations.
On Wednesday, the KSH will publish second-quarter investment data, while the Finance Ministry will issue its detailed report on the central sub-system of the state budget at the end of July.
In the first quarter, investment volumes fell by 0.5 per cent year-on-year based on unadjusted data and by 1.3 per cent according to seasonally adjusted figures. Compared with the previous quarter, the total volume of investment fell by 0.4 per cent in real terms based on seasonally adjusted data.
According to preliminary figures released by the Finance Ministry on 10 August, the central sub-system of the state budget, excluding local governments, recorded a surplus of 524.3 billion forints in July. This represented an improvement of 537.1 billion forints compared with the same month a year earlier.
In the first seven months of the year, the central sub-system recorded a deficit of 2,857.9 billion forints, equivalent to 67.7 per cent of the annual deficit target set in the budget law.
The deficit reached 3,849.8 billion forints during the first four months of the year, while surpluses recorded between May and July totalled 991.9 billion forints.
At the end of July, the central budget had a deficit of 2,773.6 billion forints, while segregated state funds recorded a surplus of 126.8 billion forints and the social security funds had a deficit of 211.0 billion forints.
On Thursday, the KSH will publish data on wages for June.
In May, the average gross earnings of full-time employees stood at 764,100 forints, while average net earnings reached 535,900 forints. Gross earnings were 8.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, while net earnings rose by 11.0 per cent and real earnings by 9.0 per cent.
The faster growth in net earnings was partly attributed to changes in family tax allowances and expanded tax benefits affecting mothers.
Median gross earnings stood at 615,600 forints, up 9.5 per cent year-on-year, while median net earnings reached HU 436,200 forints, an annual increase of 11.5 per cent.
On Friday, the KSH will release employment and unemployment figures for July.
In June, the average number of employed people aged 15–74 stood at 4.646 million. The number of unemployed people was 214,000, putting the unemployment rate at 4.4 per cent.
Between April and June, an average of 4.633 million people aged 15–74 were employed, 28,000 fewer than in the same period a year earlier and 7,600 fewer than in the previous three-month period.
A total of 4.439 million people were employed on Hungary’s primary labour market, down by 50,000 from the same period a year earlier.
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