The following is the English translation of a press release kindly provided to us by The Center for Fundamental Rights.
According to projections by the Center for Fundamental Rights, candidates from the Fidesz–KDNP coalition are expected to win a clear majority of single-member districts in the 12 April parliamentary elections.
Out of 106 constituencies, Fidesz–KDNP is projected to secure 64, while the Tisza Party is expected to win 35. A further seven constituencies have been identified as battlegrounds. The projected scale of the right-wing victory in individual districts suggests that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could once again form a government with a stable parliamentary majority in Hungary after 12 April.
Such a government, the Center’s analysis argues, would be positioned to keep Hungary out of the war, maintain a diversified energy procurement strategy—including access to relatively cheap Russian oil and gas during the ongoing energy crisis—and preserve the current system of utility price caps, flat taxes, and tax incentives.
The data indicate that the right wing continues to draw its core support from rural areas, while the Tisza Party is overrepresented in urban centres and the Budapest metropolitan region. The population shifts from the capital to surrounding areas during the coronavirus pandemic have played a visible role in shaping these trends.
In counties such as Vas, Zala, Somogy, Baranya, Nógrád, and Heves, the Fidesz Party has a strong chance of sweeping all constituencies. By contrast, opposition candidates are expected to perform better across Budapest, as well as in most constituencies in Pest and Csongrád-Csanád counties. Several districts remain highly competitive, including Bács-Kiskun County’s second, Békés County’s first and fourth, Komárom-Esztergom County’s first, Pest County’s seventh and eighth, and Veszprém County’s second district.
The seat projections are based on a multi-variable model applied at the constituency level.
This model incorporates results from the 2022 parliamentary elections (both constituency and party-list votes), discrepancies between these datasets, data from the 2024 European Parliament and local elections, measures of political stability within districts, and the latest available indicators, including local polling. It also factors in socio-demographic characteristics, recent local political developments, and electoral trends prior to 2022. Based on the combined score, all 106 constituencies are classified into four categories: ‘Fidesz–KDNP’, ‘battleground’, ‘Tisza’, and ‘other opposition’.
The methodology’s key strength lies in its ability to integrate insights from multiple election cycles, account for the impact of current political developments, and reflect regional differences, providing a comprehensive framework for forecasting the distribution of constituency seats.
Related articles:
At a time when public debate is increasingly polarized and superficial, Hungarian Conservative remains committed to depth, intellectual honesty, and independent conservative thought.
Producing high-quality journalism requires resources. Your contribution helps us expand our coverage, reach new audiences, and keep our content accessible.
Please consider supporting our mission.
