A recent American public opinion survey suggests that Viktor Orbán’s position remains dominant in Hungarian politics as the 2026 election approaches. According to the poll, commissioned by Index and conducted by US-based McLaughlin & Associates between 26–28 November, Fidesz would currently receive 44 per cent of the vote among decided voters.
The Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, trails slightly at 38 per cent. Both parties gained one percentage point since the previous survey in September, when Fidesz stood at 43 per cent and Tisza at 37 per cent. The far-right Our Homeland would reach the 5 per cent threshold, and only 4 per cent of respondents said they were undecided, an unusually low figure for Hungarian polls.
When asked who they saw as the most likely prime minister after 2026, regardless of their political preferences, 51 per cent named Orbán, while 42 per cent chose Magyar.
The poll also explored the political fallout from a leaked policy dossier linked to the Tisza Party. 62 per cent of respondents said they consider the document authentic, while only 27 per cent dismissed it as unrelated to the party. The proposals included in the leak have met with overwhelming public rejection.
Among the most unpopular ideas were a VAT increase from 27 to 32 per cent, which 74 per cent strongly opposed; the introduction of fees for paediatric and specialist medical visits, opposed by 71 per cent; a 20 per cent pension tax—including widows’ pensions—rejected by 69 per cent; and the abolition of parental benefits (GYED), to be replaced with private insurance, opposed by 64 per cent.
The findings indicate that the leaked proposals have severely damaged the Tisza Party’s image, while Orbán’s Fidesz continues to consolidate support amid perceptions of economic and political stability.
McLaughlin & Associates, the firm conducting the survey, is known for its polling work in the US and for having previously collaborated with the Hungarian government on political strategy assessments. The results reinforce a pattern seen throughout 2024: Orbán’s enduring lead over a fragmented opposition and the continuing challenge for Péter Magyar to turn rising media visibility into lasting political momentum.
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