The following is a translation of a press release kindly provided by Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) Budapest.
While peace talks led by the United States are taking place in Berlin with the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European leaders are speaking with increasing urgency about ‘readiness’—and are making ever larger financial commitments.
However, a new report by MCC Brussels issues a serious warning: Europe’s defence posture is based on illusion rather than strength—and the EU’s unprecedented €800 billion 2030 defence readiness roadmap risks becoming the Maginot Line of the 21st century: expensive and politically reassuring, but strategically irrelevant.
Over the past two weeks, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned in Berlin that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years; EU foreign ministers adopted new sanctions against Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’; and Germany presented a ten-point plan to deepen defence-industrial cooperation with Ukraine, including joint ventures and procurement talks as part of broader efforts focused on European air defence.
According to the report entitled EU Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030: The Maginot Line of the 21st Century?, however, these announcements conceal a deeper failure of strategy, capability, and political will.
The report, written by Bill Durodié (visiting professor at MCC Brussels), argues that the roadmap reveals leaders still ‘fighting the last war’—a reference to the massive French fortifications of the 1930s that were simply bypassed in 1940. The report warns that Europe is confusing process with power.
‘While the EU excels at technocratic planning,’ writes Professor Durodié, ‘it remains incapable of decisive action or inspiring genuine commitment. Talk of implementing the roadmap at “scale and speed” remains at the level of words.’
The report highlights Europe’s growing strategic weakness relative to Asia and the United States, pointing to persistent failures in innovation, a deep aversion to risk, and a regulatory mindset that hinders rather than supports entrepreneurs. According to the report, the heavy emphasis on procurement rules and compliance does not foster the technological breakthroughs required for modern warfare.
Equally damaging is Europe’s chronic lack of political cohesion. The report notes that in every major crisis, member states default to prioritizing national interests; meanwhile, EU leaders focus more on rhetorical spectacles aimed at reassuring domestic audiences than on deterring adversaries.
This is not an abstract distinction. From a military perspective, Europe is currently able to deploy only around 19,000 troops at any one time, far short of the minimum 100,000 required to guard a 1,400-kilometre border.
‘War is as much about spirit as it is about equipment’
The report’s most serious warning, however, goes beyond equipment and troop numbers: it exposes a crisis of spirit and legitimacy at the heart of the European defence project.
European leaders, after years of sidelining and alienating their own citizens, have, according to the report, undermined the foundations of loyalty, duty, and shared purpose upon which wars ultimately depend.
The consequences are already visible. According to the latest data, only 11 per cent of Britain’s Generation Z say they would fight for their country, and the figure is not much higher in Germany.
Professor Durodié concludes: ‘War is as much about spirit as it is about equipment. Quadrupling defence spending is meaningless if no one is willing to fight.’
The report’s verdict is clear and uncompromising: in its current form, the European Union is not fit for the task it claims to be preparing for.
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