Hungarian Conservative

‘The HAIKU states present a novel approach to exploring and understanding how statesmen and national leaders can navigate a dynamically changing global political landscape, marked by shifts in power balances, evolving alliances, and heightened strategic competition.’

‘The four camps of congressional foreign policy suggest different readings on the transatlantic alliance. From a liberal universalist perspective, NATO is not just a political and military alliance focusing on collective defence, but rather a collective security cooperation based on shared values. A pragmatic liberal argument views NATO as an institution where allies’ interests and values can be aligned, whereas a prudential realist understanding highlights the alliance’s role in pursuing US interests in accordance with US values. Lastly, from a strict realist perspective, NATO is the contemporary embodiment of an American sphere of interest in Europe.’

In the short term, the process of de-dollarization is exploiting the current state of the business cycle in the US and EU. Just a small decrease in the number of transactions in which the dollar is denominated will cause a devaluation of the dollar and a prolonged state of higher interest rates in the US, together with quantitative tightening—all leading to a weakening of the economic position of the US, the EU, and the other G7 countries.

‘The Agreement on the EU–Türkiye Statement regarding the Migration Deal is considered a turning point in EU–Türkiye relations, as it divided opinions on whether it had been worth entering into an alliance with the other party at such a price. However, its strategic importance was intended to be significant.’

‘Energy security, in terms the consumer understands, needs to address three things: reliability, affordability, and acceptability, in that order. These terms apply to a nation state’s understanding of energy security, both because a citizenry not achieving these things will rapidly object and because a nation state is quickly made vulnerable by the instability that comes when energy is no longer reliable, affordable, or acceptable.’

‘Germany’s slow and opaque stance on helping Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion can also be seen as reactive rather than proactive…One reason for Germany’s caution is of course a certain degree of self-consciousness—the country that produced Nazism wants to be seen as kind and respectful, not powerful or dominant. Yet all others know that it is indeed powerful, and interpret even Germany’s silence.’

‘The ideological models that had emerged at the turn of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries…had transformed social thinking and humanity’s view of the world to such an extent that it was impossible to maintain and preserve the earlier, semi-feudal Europe. This in turn meant that ethnicity and nationality, previously considered less significant elements…became a determining factor, leading not only to an exploration of the historical past of a given community, in the search for national heroes, but also to a demand for political unification with ethnic or linguistic compatriots within a single country.’

‘The international reorganization resulting from the changed role and situation of the United States will not be without consequence for Europe. At the same time, due to political and cultural challenges, there are at least serious questions regarding the future prospects of the transatlantic model we are familiar with today…’

‘As opposed to the European mainstream, which proclaims multiculturalism but in reality wraps itself up in cultural arrogance, Hungary’s openness and pragmatic stance towards the seven eighths of the world that is outside the Western realm already confer an advantage upon us. If the framework of the world as we know it crumbles against our will, this cultural openness of ours may well supply the footing for us from which to enter the next period with confidence. For navigare necesse est—Sail we must.’

‘The Russia-Ukraine War clearly intimates an emerging multipolar order. States, and not just those in the Indo-Pacific, look around the world and discern that they have options…We are truly in a New World Order. Just not the one that its “end of history” architects originally envisaged.’

The minister recalled that the world has been facing direct threats of war for the past two years, and the renewed global competition among major powers has fundamentally changed the relationship between governments and citizens regarding security.

The Chinese President emphasized that during their discussions with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán they agreed that China and Hungary have always been good friends, trusting each other, assisting one another, and striving to establish mutually beneficial relationships.

The political director of the Hungarian PM underscored in an interview with public media that the Chinese President’s visit also signifies that Hungary is becoming a key state in the region. He recalled that it has been twenty years since a Chinese president last visited Hungary, and during this time, China has become a superpower and one of the strongest countries economically, in leading positions in numerous technological industries.

Defence Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky stressed Hungary’s interest in maintaining dialogue and preserving the CEE region’s historically influential role. He noted the necessity of Central Europe’s voice and opinion to be heard, especially now.

A new world order, European security, shifting geopolitics and the nuances of energy security were discussed by renowned experts at a conference at the Ludovika University of Public Service in Budapest.

‘Strategic uncertainty is not a universal elixir, but merely one of the tools in a politician’s and a strategist’s toolbox. It is important to know when to use it, but it is perhaps even more important to know when not to. For strategic uncertainty to be an effective tool, serious kinetic action must sometimes be added to the bluffing and the show of force.’

‘For material, political, and geopolitical reasons, democracies trend towards long-duration, remote, low-exposure, naval, air, and space warfare. An absent-minded reading might leave a reader with a sense of dissonance between democratic tendencies and democratic victories in two world wars. In fact, the world wars were distant and long-lasting for the few democracies that won in the end.’

The Prime Minister’s political director Balázs Orbán held a book launch at the Ludovika University of Public Service in Budapest. The new book, now also available in English, looks at the changing geopolitical world order as well as Hungary’s role and place in it.

US foreign policy is set ‘to remain volatile and subject to disruption with changes of government and the whims of the political class. For a country like Hungary—arguably lacking the same geopolitical leverage vis-à-vis Washington—the Salvadoran reality might not offer a blueprint, but it does present a lesson’, our contributor Michael O’Shea argues.

An interview with US geopolitical analyst and Visiting Fellow at the Danube Institute Carlos Roa on the challenges of the EU, keystone states, the dangers of decoupling, and the ideological reading of the Russo–Ukrainian war.

According to the ministry’s statement, the Hungarian Foreign Minister underscored that one of the main priorities of Hungarian foreign policy remains the acceleration of Western Balkan integration. Consequently, Hungary will dedicate particular attention to this goal during its upcoming EU presidency.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has called for the creation of a common European army. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the question of how Europe can defend itself against the threats it faces has become increasingly pressing.

Rarely has a single year carried such profound implications for global security and the future as the one that lies ahead. With conflicts erupting across the globe, the foundations of the international order are being relentlessly tested. Compounding
these challenges, 2024 is marked by the impending presidential elections in two formidable and opposing powers, the United States and Russia. Similar gravity can be attributed to the European Parliament elections scheduled for the same year, where a realistic opportunity exists for the reinforcement of right-leaning forces.

‘Given these numerous negative trends, it is clear that 2024 stands as a do-or-die moment for European leaders and policymakers to save and turn around the European Union. Achieving such will require making painful decisions. In the short term, the most immediate, visible, and pressing among these is addressing the migrant crisis, including the reality that many migrants, refugees, and illegal immigrants are taking advantage of Europe’s over-generous welfare state.’

The passing of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger marks the end of an era in global diplomacy and strategy. A stalwart in realpolitik with a controversial legacy, his insights are now more relevant than ever before.

Kissinger served as US Secretary of State under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford between 1973 and 1977. In 1973, he won the Nobel Peace Prize. Known for his realist approach to foreign policy, he had considerable impact on many major world events during his century in this world.

It is quite apparent that from Afghanistan to Ukraine, from Israel to North Korea, the world is worse off than it was when Donald Trump occupied the White House. Can all this really be just by mere chance?

At the discussion Russia expert David Satter expressed scepticism about Russia being trustworthy regarding keeping the terms of a potential ceasefire, while Attila Demkó argued that Ukraine has already secured a great victory against Russia: it has not become a puppet state of Moscow.

‘I believe that the presence of all of these varying opinions is what makes the Third Danube Geopolitical Summit stand out. As James Carafano, Senior Counselor to the President at The Heritage Foundation noted during his opening address: the Danube Institute is a place that gives a platform for real dialogue.’

‘What sacrifices would the Australian nation be prepared to make now? I suspect that we will have to make some, more than we have recently had to—sacrifices in treasure, at least, if we are to avoid having to make them in blood. Because dictatorships are on the march, not just here in Europe and in the Middle East, but in East Asia too, and the only way to see off aggressive bullies is to meet them with an equal measure of strength and determination.’