Hungarian economic sentiment strengthened further in November, Századvég Economic Research Institute reported. The latest survey shows a continued rise in expectations among both households and businesses: the household confidence index increased by 1.8 points, while the corporate index rose by 1.3 points compared with October. On the scale ranging from –100 to +100, the household indicator improved to –10.7, and the corporate figure to –9.6. These are the strongest readings since May and April 2022 respectively.
For households, the most significant positive shift came from expectations regarding Hungary’s future competitiveness. In the corporate sector, optimism was strongest around the forint’s expected exchange rate trajectory.
Századvég noted that the indices remain in negative territory largely because of uncertainty caused by the protracted Russia–Ukraine war and related economic sanctions. Marked improvement will likely require an end to the conflict, stable inflation within the central bank’s 2–4 per cent target, looser monetary conditions, a recovery in Europe’s economy and sustained low energy prices.
All four household sub-indices strengthened in November. Employment perceptions improved from –0.7 to 0, economic environment sentiment rose from –21.2 to –16.5, inflation perceptions from –53.3 to –52.1, and assessments of personal finances from –9.1 to –8.0. Expectations for Hungary’s competitiveness in the coming year shifted into positive territory: 9.2 per cent expect a significant improvement, while nearly 30 per cent foresee slight gains.
The institute found that economic sentiment improved in three out of four educational categories. The strongest gains were recorded among those with at most primary education (+4.7 points), followed by skilled workers (+3.1) and university graduates (+1.3). Only respondents with secondary school diplomas showed a slight decline (–0.8 points). The most optimistic group remains those with primary education (–8.7), while the least optimistic are secondary-school graduates (–13.1).
In the November corporate survey, all four sub-indices also improved. Business environment sentiment rose from –16.2 to –15.8, assessments of the economic environment from –21.3 to –18.4, production environment from –7.9 to –7.0, and sectoral environment from –0.6 to –0.3. The largest shift was in expectations for the forint–euro exchange rate: more companies now foresee a slight strengthening of the forint over the next 12 months.
Across sectors, confidence improved on average. Construction and agriculture each recorded a 4.2-point rise, services gained 0.1 points, industry 3.7 points, and trade 1.9 points. Agriculture reported the strongest overall sentiment (–4.5), while trade remained the weakest (–11.9).
Századvég has been conducting monthly household and business confidence surveys since August 2019, each time interviewing 1,000 company leaders and 1,000 adults about their assessment of current economic conditions and future expectations.
Related articles:
