Whilst the former Hungarian government opposed opening EU accession talks with Ukraine, the European Commission continued discussions ‘on the working level’, that is, without the formal approval of all Member States. The process may soon become official, however. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka recently said that EU negotiation clusters could open in the ‘coming weeks’, likely before EU leaders meet on 18 June.
While the former Hungarian government was known for its opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership, the current government is likely to be more lenient with Kyiv. Most likely, Budapest will refrain from blocking the opening of negotiation chapters.
Critics say that starting negotiations with Ukraine is a slippery slope—the more advance EU–Ukraine talks are, the more difficult for Member States, and especially for a single Member State, to stop the Eastern European country’s accession. For this reason, the former government’s position was that there should be no formal negotiations with Ukraine as long as the biggest obstacle to its membership is not settled: the war.
Beyond signalling its willingness to unlock the negotiation clusters, the Péter Magyar government has already taken steps favourable to Ukraine. After Budapest lifted its veto, the European Union Advisory Mission Ukraine was able to expand its mandate (EUAM Ukraine).
So far EUAM Ukraine only assisted the Ukrainian civilian security sector, such as the police, with the aim of strengthening the rule of law. Now, the mission will have the mandate to act on two new fields: to aid Kyiv against hybrid threats from Moscow and assist Ukrainian war veterans.
In addition to approving the mandate extension, the Hungarian government also unblocked the EU’s €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, from which Kyiv is expected to receive its first instalment soon. Both decisions mark a significant departure from the previous government’s Ukraine policy, under which Budapest strongly opposed further military and financial support for Kyiv before April’s election.
So far, the Magyar government highlighted only one issue that it sees as a major obstacle that needs to be removed before greenlighting Ukraine’s EU aspirations: concerns about the minority rights of Hungarians living in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region. To that end, a dialogue between Kyiv and Hungary has already commenced on this issue.
Following in the footsteps of the Orbán government, Prime Minister Péter Magyar also opposes Ukraine’s fast-tracked EU membership. While even three months ago Ukraine’s EU membership by 2027 was seriously considered as a possibility, by now there seems to be an agreement that this deadline is unlikely to be approved by all the 27 Member States of the EU.
Just because Kyiv is unlikely to become an EU member within the next seven months does not exclude the possibility of the country receiving preferential treatment during the accession process. Although plans for a ‘membership lite’ model have recently faded in Brussels, discussions continue about granting Ukraine so-called ‘pre-entry’ perks.
‘Pre-entry perks’ would allow Ukraine to access some of the benefits of EU membership before gaining a full-fledged membership status. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested that Kyiv for instance could participate ‘in European Councils without voting rights’ even before becoming an EU state.
‘“Pre-entry perks” would allow Ukraine to access some of the benefits of EU membership before gaining a full-fledged membership status’
Critics of the proposal, however, argue that the idea deviates from all previous accession procedures and that granting countries the benefits of EU membership as pre-entry ‘perks’ could become a way to circumvent EU decision-making rules requiring unanimous approval from all Member States for accession. While the previous Hungarian government expressed a clear opposition to tinkering with EU accession rules this way, so far the current government’s position is unknow on this matter.
The previous government also expressed concerns about Ukraine’s adherence to the rule of law, a pre-requirement to joining the EU. This is yet another crucial issue on which the current government is silent.
Following a major corruption scandal last year, multiple members of the Ukrainian government were forced out of office. One of the politicians implicated in the scandal is President Volodymyr Zelensky’s former right-hand man, Andriy Yermak. Earlier this month the former head of the presidential office was arrested and had to appear in court as a suspect in an alleged money-laundering scheme.
Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, the Anti-corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) investigate a 100 million embezzlement scheme in which the president’s former aid might also be implicated. After four days in custody, Yermak was released this week as his 2.7 million EUR bail was paid. The corruption scandal and the President’s former advisor’s possible involvement in it may also cast doubts on Ukraine’s preparedness to join the EU.
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