‘He’ll [PM Orbán] have his goddamned pipeline,’ one unnamed EU diplomat told POLITICO, as quoted in the news site’s latest piece about tensions between Brussels and Budapest. According to the article, this time, however, the EU will try to get to a compromise with the Orbán administration on the matter of the Druzhba, as opposed to trying to force them into compliance.
The Druzhba Pipeline, which transports crude oil from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, has been out of operation since 27 January. The Ukrainian government claims this is due to a Russian attack on their energy infrastructure. However, both Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary claim to have intelligence that the pipeline could have been put back in working order, but the Zelenskyy administration refused to do so to pressure Hungary into dropping its opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession.
In response, Hungary vowed to veto the 20th EU sanctions package on Russia and a €90 billion loan to Ukraine until the flow of crude oil through the Druzhba Pipeline resumes.
To end the stand-off, the European Commission has publicly asked Ukraine to speed up its repair operations on the pipeline. This falls in line with the recent reporting by POLITICO, which suggests that instead of threats of punitive action—such as stripping the country of its voting rights within the Union through an Article 7 procedure—the EU will be seeking to appease the Hungarian government to resolve the issue. Brussels is doing so in an effort to convince Budapest to lift its veto on the two key measures helping Ukraine in its war against Russia.
According to POLITICO, the EU leadership fears that a prolonged fight with Ukraine on the restart of the oil pipeline would help Prime Minister Orbán in his re-election campaign. The Hungarian parliamentary election will take place less than two months from now, in April. Interestingly, this suggests that even politicians in Brussels do not give much credence to polls showing the opposition Tisza Party in a supposed lead by landslide margins.
‘This Druzhba story is not credible in any way, but he has to have a victory in his [PM Orbán’s] campaign,’ the same anonymous EU source cited above shared their opinion with POLITICO.
The piece by the Brussels, Belgium-based news site speculates that the Ukrainian government would run out of funds by April, the same month when the Hungarian election is held, if the EU’s new €90 billion loan to the war-torn country is not approved. Therefore, Brussels is eager to get to a quick resolution of the matter.
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