‘Meet your new neighbor, America,’ Alberta separatists issued the message to the United States on Saturday as they promoted the province’s 19 October referendum, branding the oil-rich Canadian province the ‘Texas of the North’ and predicting that a vote on leaving Canada could follow in early 2027.
‘Texas of the North is closer than Ottawa thinks,’ Rise of Alberta wrote on X, accompanying the post with an image of Alberta illuminated above the United States. The separatist page said victory in October would clear the way for a subsequent independence vote.
Alberta is Canada’s conservative energy heartland, producing the vast majority of the country’s oil and gas, while resentment towards the federal government over energy and environmental policy has fuelled separatist sentiment for decades. The movement has accelerated over the past year, with campaigners successfully gathering enough signatures in May to trigger the formal referendum process.
However, the October vote is not itself an independence referendum. Albertans will choose between remaining a province of Canada and instructing the provincial government to ‘commence the legal process’ required to hold a future binding referendum on separation.
An early-2027 independence vote is therefore a separatist target rather than a guaranteed timetable. The process has also become entangled in litigation over the provincial government’s obligation to consult the so-called First Nations. Even if Alberta eventually holds a direct referendum and separatists win a clear majority, independence would not follow automatically: Canadian law requires negotiations with Ottawa and the other provinces, followed by a constitutional amendment, with Indigenous rights, borders, assets, and liabilities among the issues to be settled. In reality, the prospect of independence is close to zero, as allowing Alberta to leave would be suicidal for other provinces regarding energy supply.
The Alberta separatist movement has become increasingly sympathetic towards the United States since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Representatives of the Alberta Prosperity Project have already reportedly met US State Department officials in Washington to discuss how the United States might respond to an independent Alberta, including potential energy links.
Separatist spokesman Jeff Rath told Reuters the objective was an independent Alberta, ‘not statehood’. Trump-administration officials confirmed staff-level meetings but said no commitments or support had been offered. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent separately welcomed Alberta’s sovereignty aspirations publicly, saying: ‘People want sovereignty. They want what the U.S. has got.’
The reported contact sparked a furious reaction from Ottawa’s Liberal government. Prime Minister Mark Carney said he expected Washington to respect Canadian sovereignty. His government has also tried to mitigate separatist sentiment in the province by engaging more constructively with its energy sector than the previous Trudeau administrations.
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