Needless to say, the 2028 US presidential election is way, way too far away to make any reasonable predictions. However, that does not stop major bookmakers across the world from already offering a market for the event.
And, as they are doing so, a funny anomaly occurred. Sitting Vice President JD Vance has by far the lowest odds, meaning he is the most likely successor to President Trump with bookies at odds as low as 3.5 (or +250 if you are familiar with the American moneyline format). However, if you are looking for the second-lowest odds, you still need to look on the GOP side: it’s President Trump himself.
That’s right, even though being constitutionally barred from running for a third term by the 22nd amendment, the one bookmaker that offers him as a bet in the market, the British William Hill, offers him at 11.0 odds (+1,000 line). That is the same value as what it has for the most likely Democratic nominee with the bookies, California Governor Gavin Newsom. However, other betting sites have Newsom with higher odds (as high as 17.7 at Betfair). Thus, technically, President Trump’s illegal third term is the second most likely outcome with bookies after a JD Vance presidency in 2028.
Vance, Trump, and Newsom are followed by progressive New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the next most likely winner with the bookies; whom, in turn, is followed by Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, another Democrat.
Will President Trump Run for a Third Term?
While President Trump did tease the idea of running for a third term, and his webshop is still selling ‘Trump 2028’ hats, he has publicly stated since that he is not planning on running in the next presidential election. When asked about his potential successors, he has named his Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Are Bookmakers Good at Predicting the Winners of US Elections?
With the introduction of the crypto-based prediction market site Polymarket, with a very visually pleasing interface for their US election market, election betting became a very prevalent topic on social media in 2024, especially on X.
People often used the Polymarket as a way to gauge the public’s response to an event during the campaign season. A week away from the election, President Trump became the heavy favourite on the crypto site (as well as with traditional bookmakers), going up as high as 67 per cent, while the mainstream media was talking about the prospect of one of the closest elections in US history.
The difference in odds narrowed by election day, however, as our readers know, President Trump still ended up comfortably winning the election, carrying all seven swing states, getting over 300 electoral votes, and winning the popular vote by 1.5 points.
On the other hand, there were a few months in 2023 when Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida was the favourite with the bookies to take the White House in 2024, but he ended up dropping out of the Republican primary race after the Iowa caucus in January.
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