The Trump administration published its National Security Strategy on Thursday, 5 December, offering a deeper insight into the president’s foreign-policy agenda for his second term. The 33-page document places particular emphasis on Europe, warning that the continent could face ‘civilizational erasure’ if it continues along its current trajectory.
Trump’s National Security Strategy highlights the negative consequences of the flawed migration policy pursued by the European Union, acknowledging the bloc’s economic and demographic problems and stating that a ‘cultural unravelling’ could unfold within the next two decades.
It argues that migration will fundamentally change European identity to a degree that could weaken US alliances. ‘Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,’ the document states. ‘As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.’
The strategy recognizes Europe’s economic and structural strengths, as well as the extent to which America’s partnership with much of the continent has benefitted the United States. ‘Not only can we not afford to write Europe off—doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve,’ it says. ‘Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory.’
‘It argues that migration will fundamentally change European identity to a degree that could weaken US alliances’
The talking points on mass migration, national sovereignty, and declining birth rates closely mirror the themes advanced by patriotic forces in Europe—including the newly formed right-wing groups in the European Parliament, such as Patriots for Europe (PfE) and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN). In recent years, right-wing parties across the continent have gained ground, expanding their voter bases despite efforts by mainstream actors to marginalize them. The National Security Strategy even issues a form of political encouragement to these forces: ‘America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.’
Such sharp rhetoric toward the European Union—particularly Western European mainstream—is not new for the Trump administration, but the document reinforces media reports that Washington is pressing its European allies to adopt a tougher stance on mass migration. The administration views uncontrolled migration into Europe and the United States as a civilizational threat to the Western world and does not regard much of the EU as a reliable partner in addressing it.
The document touches briefly on Europe’s role in the war in Ukraine. It states that it is in the US interest for the Kremlin’s war to end, both to stabilize relations with Russia and to restore ‘strategic stability’. However, it asserts that ‘unstable minority governments’ in Europe hold ‘unrealistic expectations’ about the conflict and may be obstructing peace efforts—a position frequently highlighted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
The strategy also contradicts NATO’s long-established open-door policy, calling for an end to both the perception and the reality of the alliance’s indefinite expansion.
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