We are not even a year away from the 2026 midterms, but the match-up of the 2028 presidential election is already starting to take shape—although history tells us that these early predictions rarely hold up. Vice President JD Vance has been the favourite to get the Republican nomination according to both the bookmakers and the pollsters.

Meanwhile, on the Democrat side, analysts often decried in the first months of President Trump’s second term that the party does not have a clear leader. It seemed that every time a pollster put out a new survey about the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, a different person would lead the field, and hardly ever close to 40 per cent of support.

A segmented, hard-fought primary with no clear favourite is typically not a good omen for a party before a presidential election.

That problem, as of now, appears to be on the track to a solution for the ‘Dems’. California Governor Gavin Newsom has managed to cut through the crowd and grab the public’s attention lately. He was able to do so with a ‘two-pronged attack’: first, with his proposal for a referendum—thus bypassing his state’s constitution that calls for new districts to be drawn every ten years, and by an independent commission—on California’s new congressional districts to counter Republicans’ efforts in Texas. And second, by starting what is essentially a Donald Trump parody account on X, the Governor Newsom Press Office.

Some Republicans have denounced that social media stunt as disrespectful to the President, especially when the posts referenced the assassination attempt against President Trump in July 2024. However, those Republicans should keep in mind that President Trump has repeatedly called the California Governor ‘Newscum’ in his social media posts, even during the January California wildfire crisis, far away from campaign season.

Given that this is an opinion piece, it is perhaps appropriate to state that the author is hoping for a Republican victory in the 2028 presidential election. Still, as a Republican, allow me to give some advice to the Newsom team: the Trump parody tweets are effective at times, but it is probably time to put them on ice for a while and revisit them when it is closer to campaign season. Memes pop up and die fast on the internet in this age, so you want to avoid making one of the few popular Democrat memes ‘stale’ before an election—the once-constant Epstein memes are now few and far between under President Trump’s posts for the same reason, as I predicted in my opinion piece on that subject last month.

Also, to be honest, as a Republican, I don’t mind giving Governor Newsom good advice ahead of the 2028 primaries—because I wouldn’t mind seeing him lead the Democratic ticket at all.

The reason is simple: California Governor Gavin Newsom’s biggest weakness as a national figure is that he is the Governor of California. The fact that things are not going well in the Golden State can hardly be disputed, given its population loss—made even more striking when compared to growth in other states across the country. While California had 55 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election, it is expected to go down to just 50 after the 2030 census. This is all due to domestic migration out of state, typically to GOP strongholds like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee.

The local problems making the everyday lives of California residents harder are evident. A gallon of gas in the state costs at least a dollar more than the national average on any given day (today’s numbers, per AAA: the national average is $3.137 a gallon, California’s average is $4.496 a gallon), due to the high gas tax in the state. California also has the highest state income tax in the Union by far, 13.3 per cent for the top bracket.

The state also has a major housing price and consequent homelessness crisis, which is only exacerbated by the local liberal leaders’ welcoming disposition to illegal immigrants. Due to the same neo-liberal philosophy on crime, residents had to take matters into their own hands and pass Proposition 36 in the 2024 elections, which forced the state to reclassify thefts under $950 as felonies. Support for the ballot initiative was mostly fueled by the shoplifting epidemic across California. Because of the same crime rate increase, progressive District Attorney for LA County George Gascón lost his re-election bid in 2024 as well.

And all this is not even taking into account the problems the Democratic Party faces on the national level. Even the always left-leaning The New York Times wrote a piece about the ‘registration crisis’ for the party: the GOP has been consistently outperforming the Democrats in registration in all 30 states that track party affiliations. In favourability ratings, Governor Newsom’s party has been polling below the Republicans with virtually every pollster this year.

Whether or not Governor Newsom can get through a Democratic primary is sort of a naive question. As we saw it in 2016, 2020, and 2024, the Democratic party establishment will find a way to get their preferred candidate on the ballot—even if the primary elections are over and someone else won, as in the case of poor old President Joe Biden last time. However, Newsom will almost certainly be coming out of the primaries somewhat bruised, as the socialist, ultra-progressive wing of the party—the most prominent figure of which right now is New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani—will find someone else to support ahead of Newsom, giving that candidate a couple wins in far-left states and a good chunk of the primary popular vote.

So, as things stand now, the Democrats are set to nominate a ‘San Francisco liberal’ for president for the second time in a row. Last time, with Vice President Kamala Harris, it did not go well for them. Not only did she lose the election, but she won her home state of California by a significantly smaller margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020—which was a major factor in giving Republicans their first popular vote victory in a presidential election since 2004.

There is not much to suggest that it would go any better for them in 2028.

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