Hungarian Conservative

In an unprecedented twist of events, we now have the incumbent party running a non-incumbent candidate, while the non-incumbent party is running a former incumbent candidate. The incumbent advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in American politics, a lot of which is due to simple name recognition. This aspect now heavily favours Former President Trump.

In a letter posted on the social media platform X on Sunday, Joe Biden stated: ‘I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.’ He also promised to elaborate on the details of his decision in a speech to the nation later this week.

‘Especially after the assassination attempt, there will be some sympathy for Trump. The images as he was raising his fist, with the American flag in the background, in defiance of critical violence, with blood on his face—that’s a very strong image that could be burnt into the minds of the American people. And since right now, we are living in the world of images, unfortunately, and not in the world of words, that might be a very, very potent weapon in the hands of Republicans demonstrating that Trump is up to his task, as opposed to Biden, who is frail mentally and physically as well.’

As more and more people from his own party call on President Biden to step aside, President Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election seems more certain by the day. However, how much can one trust polling data after what happened in 2016 and 2022?

In the first 24 hours after the historic guilty verdict, President Trump’s campaign raised a whopping $52.8 million, according to the announcement of the campaign itself. If this is true, that would be a shattering new record, beating out the $26 million the Biden camp raised in one day in August 2020, after they announced that Kamala Harris would be their Vice Presidential nominee, the first black female candidate on a presidential ticket.

Incumbent conservative judge Andrew Pinson beat his liberal challenger John Barrow by 10 points in an election for a seat on the Supreme Court of Georgia last Friday. That is despite the fact that Barrow made abortion rights the centre message of the campaign, which is perceived as one of the strongest issues for Democrats in the 2024 presidential election.

President Trump is leading President Biden by double digits in Nevada, a state President Biden won by 2.4 points in 2020. The Republican challenger was also shown to have the advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as well; with the only exception being Michigan, where President Biden leads by a single point.

At the height of his popularity, ‘shock jock’ Howard Stern was known for having porn actors perform sex acts on his show and routinely engaged in racial humour, even saying the ‘N-word’ on air. Yet President Joe Biden, who has been criticized even by liberal outlets for being unavailable to the press, chose him to finally give a long-form interview.

Former President Trump’s criminal trial has begun in Manhattan, which some polling data suggests could cost him his victory in the presidential election in November. However, President Biden is not in a great position either as the economy and the state of foreign affairs have recently worsened, and he was already struggling with a low approval rating on these issues. How will all this end?

The voters of Wisconsin voted to amend their state constitution, putting stricter election rules in place. Also, just like in all other swing states, the Republican primary turnout outnumbered that of the Democrats. However, President Biden got a higher vote total (due to his higher vote share) than President Trump in a swing state primary for the first time—what does this all mean?

Based on his primary model, political scientist Helmut Norpoth gives incumbent Joe Biden of the Democratic Party a 75 per cent chance for re-election. However, the same model was widely inaccurate in 2020, giving Donald Trump a 91 per cent chance of becoming president again. Its 2024 forecast again goes against aggregate polling data and consensus in the news and betting industry.

‘It’s just unarguably the case that whatever it is they accuse someone like Viktor Orbán of doing, the progressive left in America, it is quite clear that these conditions apply in immeasurably more effect to the American system.’

President Trump won 14 out of the 15 states up for grabs on Super Tuesday, with Nikki Haley taking Vermont. Meanwhile, President Biden is falling short in more than one way in primary trends in the 21st century for incumbent presidents.

All nine justices agreed that the 14th Amendment does not give states the power to bar someone from running for federal office, only Congress has that power. Therefore, states cannot remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot in the 2024 presidential election.

President Trump has won six out of six primary contests so far, the latest one in the key swing state of Michigan. The turnout level on the two sides, along with current polling, suggests that he is in a good position to take back the White House in the autumn.

Members of the American Political Science Association came up with a peculiar ranking, trivializing catastrophic events in American history that led to the suffering of many in the process, such as the American Civil War, white supremacist terror in the South, and the Great Depression.

Secretary Mayorkas was impeached for neglecting his responsibility to protect the borders of the United States. He is only the second US Department Secretary to be indicted by the lower chamber of Congress in American history and the first since 1876.

While Robert K. Hur’s special counsel did not recommend criminal charges against President Biden, it did raise additional concerns about his mental acuity. Also, given that former President Trump was indicted on 38 counts of felony charges for virtually the same conduct, it raises suspicions of political bias within the US Justice Department.

Bryan E. Leib, Márton Ugrósdy, and Magor Ernyei were the distinguished panellists in a discussion at the Center for Fundamental Rights on how this year’s US presidential election is shaping up to be, and what effect it could have on Europe and Hungary.

Donald Trump is currently leading Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate by a wider margin than what Republicans ever held against Democrats leading up to the 2022 midterms, 4.3 points. Independent and third-party candidates also give the GOP a better opportunity for victory than in 2022.

When arguing against stricter immigration laws, some on the left like to appeal to the significance of migration in American history. However, the truth is that there has never been a popular demand for lack of immigration control in the United States.

Despite three other major candidates still in the running on the Republican side, Former President Donald Trump still got an overall majority of the vote, 51 per cent. An easy primary election victory for an out-of-office candidate is a very good sign for the general election as well.

The 31-year-old former crypto entrepreneur, who was the second largest donor to the Democratic Party in the 2022 midterms election cycle only behind George Soros, was convicted on fraud charges for embezzling about $8 billion of his customers’ deposits.

Mainstream media outlets in the US are now treating the content on Hunter Biden’s laptop, found abandoned at a Delaware computer repair shop, as authenticated and factual. However, they did not bother to investigate the matter ahead of the 2020 election, when the story could have hurt the Democrats.

Pelosi recently gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. When asked about Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, she replied that ‘she is doing ok,’ but then contrasted that with Hungary, who she believes should not even be in the EU for its lack of support for Ukraine.

Congressman Johnson became the 56th Speaker of the House after his predecessor, fellow Republican Kevin McCarthy, became the first Speaker in US history to be ousted by the House.

Despite having only two Democrats and eight Republicans on the ballot, Jeff Landry, with the endorsement of President Trump, managed to win over 50 per cent of the popular vote in the primary, and thus became the next governor of Louisiana. What does this mean for 2024?

It is evident that the 2024 field of candidates is double-edged. While it is incredibly crowded and diverse, it is dominated by Biden and Trump.

The United States of America will elect its president next year. While most Republican voters apparently support the return of Donald Trump, there is a huge and diverse field of candidates fighting for the chance to challenge Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.

While the other Republican candidates were at the Fox News debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, President Trump hosted Tucker Carlson at one of his private residences in Bedminster, New Jersey for an interview. That interview amassed a staggering 250 million views on the internet.