Republicans went into the 2025 off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey quite hopeful. As everyone knows, President Trump returned to the White House for an almost unprecedented second non-consecutive term a year before, winning the popular vote for the GOP in a presidential election for the first time in 20 years.
And, since he got in, his party did not stop gaining on Democrats in voter registrations despite what people expected, a problem even the left-leaning The New York Times had to address in a famous piece. What’s more, Democratic nominee for Attorney General Jay Jones in Virginia had an infuriating scandal break about a month before the election: leaked private text messages showed that he wished death upon Republican Virginia State House speaker Todd Gilbert and his young children (!) for their political differences.
Perhaps the result of the night that stings the most: Jones ended up winning, and not even by a slim margin. As of the time of writing this, Decision Desk HQ is projecting a 4.6-point victory for him.
It was no surprise that Democrat Abigail Spanberger took the governor’s mansion for herself in George Washington’s home state. However, she outperformed the polls. The RealClearPolitics polling aggregate showed her up by 10.2 points on election day, and she is currently projected to win by 13 points (again, taking the projection from Decision Desk). It is most likely her overperformance that carried the scandal-ridden Jones over the finish line.
Democrat Mikie Sherill (who had a list of scandals of her own, although none of the level of Jones in Virginia) outdid her polling by an even wider margin. Some, even many, expected a nailbiter with Sherill leading GOP’s second-time nominee Jack Citarelli by 3.3 points in the RCP average in a state that traditionally underpolls Republicans. Now, as the votes are coming in, she is expected to win by 9.2 points.
The Brazil-based pollster Atlas Intel has ruined their famously remarkable record, as they undercounted Democrat support by 4.3 points in Virginia for the gubernatorial race, 6.1 points in the Attorney General race (where, thus, they also called the wrong winner), and by a whopping 8.3 points in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, if DDHQ projections hold.
Is there any silver lining for Republicans?
Very little. The New Jersey governor’s race is closer than it was in 2017, the last time President Trump occupied the White House, when Democrats won the open seat by 14.14 points. However, the margin is wider than in the 2017 Virginia governor’s race, when Democrats won by 8.93.
‘Is there any silver lining for Republicans? Very little.’
The Garden State is projected to move about 3.5 points to the left from the 2024 presidential election, which is about what you would expect for the out-of-power party in an off-year election. The two states combined moved by about 5.5 points to the left on average.
Also, the GOP overperformed expectations and even won the Virginia gubernatorial race in the 2021 off-year election, yet they ended up with a disappointing midterm election the next year, losing a Senate seat and two governors’ seats despite the economy turning very sour with sky-high inflation and gas prices, as well as rising interest rates and a subsequent stock market crash. All this shows that you cannot stipulate two far ahead based on these elections. Then, in turn, Republicans won big in the 2024 presidential election, which is in part because President Trump has a big edge with the so-called ‘low propensity’ voters, who are certainly not likely to show up for an off-year gubernatorial race.
What is certainly a setback for President Trump and the Republicans is that this will likely embolden the Democrats in their shutdown fight, as they could reasonably deduce that their aggressive tactics are working.
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