The past few days have revived hope that peace in Europe might soon be achieved. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, the recent efforts of the US President to bring peace to Europe prove that isolating or aiming to defeat Russia on the front lines is not a strategy that works. A diplomatic solution is necessary to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. While the specifics are not yet fully developed, some plans are already publicly known.

Peace and Not ‘Only’ Ceasefire

One of the major shifts that has occurred in President Donald Trump’s policy since his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is that he is no longer urging a ceasefire. Instead, the US President now seems to believe that working on a peace deal is the right option. ‘You know, if you look at the six deals that I settled this year, they were all at war. I didn’t do any ceasefires. And I know that it might be good to have, but I can also understand strategically why one country or the other wouldn’t want it,’ the President said.

Security Guarantees

It appears that some form of security guarantees is now being offered to Ukraine. In his eight-minute remarks, Putin himself acknowledged that Ukraine requires such assurances. By Tuesday, Washington and Kyiv’s European allies had also confirmed that a security arrangement of some kind is under negotiation. ‘When it comes to security, there’s going to be a lot of help,’ Trump said, explaining how EU countries will be the first line of defence, while the US will coordinate the whole effort.

Although the exact details of these security guarantees are not known, on Monday, Moscow strictly rejected the idea of NATO personnel being deployed in Ukraine. Shortly after, President Donald Trump also confirmed that there will not be American boots on the ground, although a possible US noncombat presence is not entirely excluded. Ukraine’s NATO membership, on the other hand, is off the table.

Investment

Possibly as part of the above-mentioned guarantees, Ukraine offered to buy up to 90 billion USD worth of US weapons. Since the critical minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, many have argued that a strong American economic presence in the Donbas could serve as a deterrent to invasion, as it would risk harming US economic interests.

‘Moscow strictly rejected the idea of NATO personnel being deployed in Ukraine’

This offer made by the Ukrainian President, however, might raise alarms in some EU Member States. The EU pledged to support Kyiv from its next seven-year budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), with at least 100 billion EUR—that is, Kyiv promised to spend a similar amount on US weapons as Brussels is planning on spending on Ukraine. Cynically, EU Member States could say Zelenskyy promised to spend not Ukrainian hryvnia, but euros on US weapons.

Trilateral—Or Bilateral—Meeting

According to Politico, Donald Trump’s trusted advisor, Steve Witkoff, is in charge of organizing a meeting—either bilateral or trilateral—between the Ukrainian, Russian, and American leaders. It remains unclear which format the talks will take. After meeting with President Putin, Donald Trump mentioned a trilateral summit; however, he later clarified that the initial gathering will involve only the Ukrainian and Russian leaders. ‘Began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy. After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two Presidents, plus myself,’ the President wrote on Truth Social.

Although there was considerable enthusiasm shortly after the Trump–Zelenskyy summit that the meeting might take place within 10 to 14 days, by Tuesday evening, that optimism had begun to fade. On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov cooled down expectations—while he expressed that the Kremlin is ready for talks with Kyiv, the senior diplomat argued that they should happen ‘step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages.’

According to people who were granted anonymity to speak on the issue, Budapest is one of the locations that is being considered for the international peace summit. Budapest would be an alternative to Moscow (offered by Putin) and Geneva, too (provided by French President Emmanuel Macron). The International ICC arrest warrant issued against Vladimir Putin will not pose an issue, regardless of whether Hungary or Switzerland is selected as the location for the gathering. Hungary is in the process of leaving the ICC due to its politically motivated arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while the Swiss Foreign Minister already confirmed that President Putin would be granted ‘immunity’ if he came to the country for peace talks.

Elections

As for the future of Ukraine after peace is secured, President Zelenskyy signalled his willingness to hold the presidential elections originally scheduled for March or April 2024, which were postponed due to the war and martial law imposed at the start of the invasion. Some used the missed deadline to criticize the Ukrainian President as an illegitimate leader and charge him with an increasingly authoritarian grab for power. Speaking to the press in Washington, Zelenskyy did not exclude the possibility of going ahead with presidential elections in Ukraine: ‘We need a truce…to make it possible for people to do democratic, open, legal elections,’ he said.

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