Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has drifted to the brink of collapse after Israeli lawmakers last week took the first formal step toward dissolving the Knesset and triggering early elections.
The crisis erupted after Netanyahu’s former coalition allies in United Torah Judaism (UTJ) announced that they would push to dissolve the Knesset over the government’s failure to pass legislation codifying military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students.
Since returning to office in December 2022, Netanyahu had repeatedly assured his ultra-Orthodox allies that such legislation would eventually be approved. UTJ formally withdrew from the government and coalition last year amid frustration over delays in passing the exemption bill.
Leading opposition figure Yair Golan described the vote as ‘the beginning of the end of the worst government in Israel’s history.’ The development marks another dramatic chapter in Israel’s turbulent political landscape, where Benjamin Netanyahu has dominated politics for much of the past three decades, serving as prime minister for 20 of the last 30 years.
However, dissolving parliament would still require the backing not only of opposition parties but also of the other major ultra-Orthodox faction, Shas, which holds 11 seats and has so far avoided taking a definitive position.
Under Israeli law, dissolving the Knesset requires four separate votes: a preliminary reading followed by three additional readings in parliament, each needing the support of a simple majority of 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat chamber. If the process is accelerated, elections could theoretically take place as early as August, although reports suggest the ultra-Orthodox parties favour 1 September or 15 September as potential election dates.
A Growing Divide over Military Service
The ultra-Orthodox exemption law has become deeply divisive both within the coalition and among the broader Israeli public, particularly as the country remains engaged in a prolonged multi-front conflict following the Hamas-led 7 October, 2023 attacks.
According to a survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute in January, public support for ending the draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men has increased significantly over the past year. The survey found that support for conscripting Haredi men stood at 84.5 per cent, compared to 67 per cent in January 2024. Furthermore, only 9 per cent of respondents supported exempting the ultra-Orthodox from military service, compared to 22 per cent a year earlier.
In June 2024, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must also be drafted, thereby legally ending the decades-long exemption system. Since then, approximately 24,000 young ultra-Orthodox men have received draft notices, but only about 5 per cent of them—roughly 1,200 individuals—have reported for service. To enforce the law, the IDF began carrying out arrests, prompting the ultra-Orthodox community to organize mass demonstrations nationwide.
‘The military faces severe manpower shortages unless additional recruits are drafted’
Against this backdrop, calls for equal military service have grown louder. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has repeatedly warned that the military faces severe manpower shortages unless additional recruits are drafted.
Israeli defence officials estimate that roughly 80,000 ultra-Orthodox men of military age are currently eligible for service but remain unconscripted. The IDF has stated that it urgently needs around 12,000 additional soldiers, particularly for combat roles.
Campaign Strategy or Coalition Crisis?
Since the four-year term of Netanyahu’s government, elected in 2022, was set to expire this year anyway, elections would have had to be held by the end of October at the latest. Thus, if the Knesset is dissolved now, the election could take place only one or two months earlier than originally expected.
This could even work to Netanyahu’s advantage, as it would allow him to avoid an election date around 7 October, weakening the opposition’s narrative that the vote should serve as a referendum on Netanyahu’s responsibility for the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023.
Furthermore, despite the current tensions, the ultra-Orthodox parties could ultimately still play a decisive role in preserving Netanyahu’s political future. Both UTJ and Shas have long been among Netanyahu’s most reliable allies, and they are unlikely to find significant support for maintaining draft exemptions among anti-Netanyahu opposition parties.
Some analysts believe Netanyahu may attempt to frame himself during the election campaign as the leader who prevented a controversial exemption law from passing, while later rebuilding a coalition with the same ultra-Orthodox factions if re-elected.
Thus, according to critics, it is therefore possible that the current crisis is not purely a coalition breakdown, but also a calculated political manoeuvre between Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties aimed at consolidating their voter bases and shaping the timing of the next election.
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