Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) suffered a major setback on Sunday, 24 May, as the inhabitants of Kraków—the country’s second-largest city and one of the traditional strongholds of Tusk’s liberal-centrist-progressive alliance—voted to remove Mayor Aleksander Miszalski and the city council in a recall referendum.
According to the exit poll conducted by OGB and Stan360 for Polsat News, turnout reached 33.4 per cent, comfortably above the legal validity thresholds of 26.98 per cent for the mayoral recall and 30.59 per cent for the city council recall.
Among those who cast ballots, an overwhelming 97.8 per cent voted in favour of recalling Miszalski, while 96 per cent supported dismissing the city council. A late poll published on Sunday night revised turnout slightly lower to 31.8 per cent—still above the required threshold—while the result itself remained virtually unchanged, effectively confirming Miszalski’s removal pending the official count.
Losing Kraków Is Painful for Tusk
The referendum result is widely regarded as a major blow to Donald Tusk and his governing alliance, particularly its progressive wing. Miszalski had been elected only two years earlier as one of KO’s flagship urban victories in the 2024 local elections and represented a typical urban–liberal technocratic figure within Tusk’s coalition, similar to Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Kraków was intended to serve as a showcase for that model of technocratic–liberal governance, with a heavy emphasis on green urban policies.
According to many analysts, however, those same policies ultimately contributed to Miszalski’s downfall, as rising living costs associated with the city’s controversial green agenda became a central issue in the campaign.
‘The referendum was also widely viewed as a symbolic “midterm test” ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election’
Tusk himself suffered a significant loss of face after personally intervening in the campaign and dismissing the referendum effort as opposition agitation orchestrated by right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) and Konfederacja.
‘This is some kind of PiS and Konfederacja idea for political troublemaking,’ the Polish prime minister said in February, adding that Miszalski had ‘our full support’. Tusk’s remarks mirrored rhetoric used throughout Miszalski’s campaign, which framed the referendum as a politically motivated attempt at destabilization and called on supporters to boycott the vote.
The referendum was also widely viewed as a symbolic ‘midterm test’ ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election, with the outcome suggesting weakening political momentum for KO. Almost exactly one year earlier, PiS-backed Karol Nawrocki had narrowly defeated long-time Tusk ally Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential run-off, shattering the government’s hopes of fully implementing its programme, including major judicial reforms, progressive social policies, and efforts to hold former PiS officials accountable for alleged abuses of power and corruption. The Kraków result similarly signals growing dissatisfaction with KO nationwide, including among parts of its own electoral base.
A Model of Right-Wing Cooperation Ahead of 2027?
What eventually became a highly symbolic defeat for Tusk’s alliance initially emerged in late 2025 and early 2026 as a grassroots civic campaign led by activists, local conservative circles, and residents increasingly frustrated with Kraków’s leadership and the city’s direction. Public anger steadily intensified over planned environmental restrictions, rising parking fees, higher transport costs, growing municipal debt, and perceptions that Miszalski’s administration represented an increasingly technocratic and detached elite.
Over the following months, with backing from opposition parties PiS and Konfederacja, organizers succeeded in collecting more than 130,000 signatures demanding a recall referendum.
Much like the 2025 presidential run-off, Kraków now also demonstrates how successful electoral cooperation between PiS and Konfederacja could function if built around strong anti-KO sentiment and the mobilization of different segments of the right-wing electorate. Nawrocki’s presidential victory was widely attributed in part to Konfederacja candidate Sławomir Mentzen endorsing him in the second round against Trzaskowski.
‘Kraków now also demonstrates how successful electoral cooperation between PiS and Konfederacja could function’
While many of the referendum votes should be interpreted primarily as votes against Miszalski rather than explicit endorsements of PiS or Konfederacja, the cooperation model emerging in Kraków could nevertheless provide a useful framework ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election. ‘After Kraków, we are doing the same with [Civic] Platform throughout Poland,’ Konfederacja MP Konrad Berkowicz declared in February.
Broader nationwide polling trends also increasingly favour this kind of tactical anti-Tusk cooperation. Although KO still leads most national polls individually with around 35 per cent support, recent polling averages show that the combined support of PiS (roughly 24–26 per cent), Konfederacja (13–15 per cent), and Grzegorz Braun’s hard-right Confederation of the Polish Crown (8–9 per cent) often approaches—or even exceeds—the total support of Tusk’s governing camp, while KO’s coalition partners continue to weaken significantly in opinion surveys.
UPDATE:
After the official vote count, published Monday by Poland’s National Electoral Commission (PKW), the referendum successfully removed Mayor Aleksander Miszalski, but the city council survived because turnout did not reach the higher legal threshold required for dissolving the council. Final turnout reached 29.9 per cent—above the 26.98 per cent threshold for recalling the mayor, but below the 30.59 per cent threshold calculated separately for the city council referendum.
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