Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won the first round of the Polish presidential election in an extremely tight race against Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by Law and Justice (PiS). The two will face a rematch in the run-off on 1 June.
According to a late poll conducted by Ipsos—a type of early survey differing from exit polls and published after midnight—Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s candidate, Trzaskowski, secured 31.1 per cent of the vote in an exciting contest against Nawrocki, who garnered 29.1 per cent. Slawomir Mentzen, candidate of the ideologically conservative and economically more liberal Konfederacja party alliance, came in third with 14.8 per cent. Exit polls painted a similar picture, with Ipsos projecting 31.8 per cent for Trzaskowski and 29.1 per cent for Nawrocki, while NRG predicted 31.6 and 29.8 per cent, respectively.
Mentzen Voters Could Decide Second Round
‘Poland first, Poles first,’ wrote the conservative historian in a post on X after the preliminary results were published. Nawrocki was clearly referencing US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ campaign slogan—the PiS-backed candidate even received Trump’s endorsement in the heat of the campaign. ‘You will win,’ the US President told Nawrocki during their meeting in the Oval Office on 2 May.
Turning around the two-percentage-point gap in the second round will not be an easy task for Nawrocki. However, he is looking ahead with potentially favourable prospects. To secure the presidency, he will need the unified backing of both sections of Konfederacja’s electorate. Given the ideological alignment, it would be reasonable for both Mentzen and Braun supporters to back Nawrocki in the second round, as they share similar views on critical issues such as military support for Ukraine, including the presence of Polish troops on Ukrainian soil, LGBTQ and gender ideology, and stronger sovereignty for EU member states.
However, Konfederacja remains highly critical of Poland’s mainstream parties, namely PiS and Tusk’s Civic Platform. Although running as an independent, Nawrocki is widely described as PiS’s candidate—something that may deter a significant portion of Mentzen’s and Braun’s supporters from casting their ballots for him in the run-off. This is particularly true in Mentzen’s case, as he enjoys strong support among the youth, a demographic generally critical of PiS.
‘That segment of the electorate could offer a hidden boost to Trzaskowski’
That segment of the electorate could offer a hidden boost to Trzaskowski, as younger voters tend to be more pro-EU and liberal in their outlook, and may perceive the Warsaw mayor as more acceptable than someone backed by PiS. A similar pattern was evident in the 2020 presidential race, where approximately 52 per cent of Konfederacja’s voters supported then-PiS candidate and current incumbent Andrzej Duda, while around 48 per cent backed Trzaskowski.
In 2020 Konfederacja’s candidate, Krzysztof Bosak, did not endorse either contender in the second round—a decision that likely contributed to a split among the party’s electorate. In a post on X following the release of exit polls, Mentzen stated that he would assist his voters in making their decision in the run-off, promising to issue a ‘proper statement’ on the matter soon.
Mobilization Will Be Crucial
Below Braun, Adrian Zandberg (candidate of the left-wing Razem; 5.2 per cent), Szymon Hołownia (Marshal of the Sejm and candidate of the Poland 2050 party; 4.9 per cent), and Magdalena Biejat (Deputy Speaker of the Senate and candidate of the New Left; 4.1 per cent) are all expected to endorse Trzaskowski in the second round.
PiS MP Janusz Kowalski emphasized after the preliminary results that ‘Poland has taken a sharp right turn,’ adding that Poles want a strong country. ‘And they want an end to the Tusk and Trzaskowski regime. We will win,’ he concluded.
The stakes in this presidential election are exceptionally high. Since assuming power in December 2023, Donald Tusk has pursued a sweeping crackdown on political opponents—including former civil servants—while systematically dismantling key democratic checks on his authority, such as the judiciary and public media. At present, the only remaining institutional counterweight to Tusk’s expansive powers is PiS-affiliated President Andrzej Duda. In Poland, the president holds the right to veto legislation, serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, plays a significant role in shaping foreign policy, and has the authority to propose new laws.
‘The game for everything is just beginning,’ Tusk wrote on X after the initial results were announced. He promised a ‘tough fight’ for every vote and vowed not to retreat. ‘These two weeks will decide the future of our homeland,’ he concluded.
Both parties highlighted the need for ‘full mobilization’ in their initial speeches following the first round, signalling the potential for a record-breaking voter turnout in the run-off. On 18 May more than 66 per cent of Poles cast their ballots—the highest turnout in the country’s post-communist history.
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