Hungary’s economic growth could accelerate in 2026, with GDP expanding by 2.8 per cent, according to the latest analysis presented by Equilor Investment Ltd. Senior analyst Zoltán Varga noted that the country’s outlook is weighed down by the weakness of the German economy and global uncertainty fuelled by trade tensions. He added that the European Central Bank’s interest rate cutting cycle may have reached its end, while eurozone growth continues to struggle under political risks. A potential recovery in German investment and stronger domestic demand could support Europe’s economy next year, though the war in Ukraine remains a brake on investment.
In Hungary, household consumption is expected to keep rising in the coming quarters, driven by increasing real wages and government programmes. Inflation is forecast to fall to an average of 3.7 per cent next year and could return to the central bank’s tolerance band by the first quarter of 2026. Varga also pointed out that the forint has been supported by high interest rates, though analysts consider the currency fundamentally overvalued. In the short term, however, further strengthening is possible.
Chief analyst Péter Aradványi observed that the so-called Trump effect on US markets is fading, with record highs being set across the stock exchanges. Artificial intelligence-related sectors have been leading the rally, while healthcare, energy, and consumer goods have underperformed. Equilor currently sees the best investment opportunities in US utilities, healthcare, and financials.
Discussing Hungary’s blue-chip stocks, Varga said OTP Bank’s profits are set to continue growing, supported by cheap deposits, quality lending, and efficiency gains. The bank could also benefit from the Otthon Start housing loan programme, which is expected to generate 400 to 450 billion forints in new loans this year and next. For oil and gas company MOL, falling crude prices pose headwinds, though rising refining margins provide support for its downstream operations.
Pharmaceutical company Richter is preparing for the expiration of its Vraylar patent in 2030 with ambitious plans in both neuropsychology and gynecology. Magyar Telekom continues to show dynamic growth, with revenues expected to rise 1 to 3 per cent this year despite skipping inflation-linked fee adjustments. Those corrections are expected to boost revenues again from the second half of 2026.
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