Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz–KDNP alliance would secure victory if the parliamentary election were held this Sunday, according to recently published polling data by the US-based McLaughlin & Associates.
The results, analysed by Hungarian outlet Index, show Fidesz–KDNP leading with 43 per cent, while the main opposition party Tisza trails at 37 per cent. According to McLaughlin’s data, the socialist–progressive Democratic Coalition (DK) and the hard-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) would be the only other parties to pass the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold.
The poll also examined energy security, which has become a central issue in the campaign just weeks before the election, as Ukraine has halted transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline since 27 January. According to McLaughlin’s data, 69 per cent of respondents did not agree with Kyiv’s decision.
Moreover, 61 per cent of respondents opposed the European Commission’s plan to phase out Russian oil and gas imports to Hungary as early as 15 April.
Two-thirds of respondents—63 per cent—also agreed that Hungary’s energy infrastructure, power plants, and electricity and gas supply must be protected from potential Ukrainian interference, acts of sabotage, or drone attacks.
As noted by Index, the most unfavourable figure for Péter Magyar and the Tisza party is that seven out of ten respondents—69 per cent—would not be willing to pay a surcharge—meaning petrol prices of up to 1,000 forints per litre or double or triple the current monthly gas bill—in order to immediately terminate Russian oil and gas supplies in Hungary. According to the survey, only 18 per cent share the position of Péter Magyar and the Tisza party on this issue.
The poll was directed by John McLaughlin, a professional strategist and pollster with over 40 years of experience. Over the course of his career, he has worked for some of America’s most successful companies. Since 2011, he has served as an adviser and pollster to President Donald Trump, participating in all three of Trump’s presidential campaigns.
His work has been recognized with Telly Awards and PR Week Campaign Awards. John McLaughlin holds a BA from Fordham College and an MBA from Fordham University in finance and quantitative methods. He is also a member of MENSA and the CEO of McLaughlin & Associates.
The results of McLaughlin’s survey sharply contradict Hungarian opposition-leaning polling data often cited in Western media. One of the most notable examples is polling linked to Medián, which recently measured Tisza ahead of Fidesz–KDNP by 20 percentage points. As Hungarian Conservative has reported several times, these pollsters have often proven highly inaccurate, and may even be manipulated to create an artificial lead for whichever challenger is facing Orbán at a given time.
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