Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party secured a convincing victory in a local by-election framed as a prelude to the upcoming and much-awaited parliamentary contest between the governing party and the opposition Tisza, led by Fidesz defector Péter Magyar.
The victory of the Fidesz–KDNP candidate Zoltán Nagy in Balmazújváros, a town in Hajdú–Bihar County with around 17,000 residents, also has the potential to end months of political paralysis in the municipal council, which has had serious negative effects on the lives of locals.
Gearing Up for April
The vote, held on Sunday, 8 February, was triggered by the resignation of local representative Pál Demeter (Together for Balmazújváros Association; KBE), who stepped down on 14 November 2024 after narrowly winning his seat earlier that year by just four votes. Three candidates contested the vacant mandate in the town’s seventh single-member constituency: Zoltán Nagy for Fidesz–KDNP, Péter Molnár for KBE, and the independent candidate Erzsébet Béresné Lőrincz. More than 1,600 residents were eligible to vote.
While officially a civic organization, KBE does not conceal its sympathy towards the main opposition party, Tisza. Former mayor of Balmazújváros and local opposition leader Péter Hegedüs said during the campaign that those who want change in Hungary are ‘necessarily Tisza sympathizers’, adding that several of their activists are connected to Tisza.
KBE candidate Péter Molnár also received the support and endorsement of Péter Márki-Zay, who ran against Orbán in 2022 as the prime ministerial candidate of the united opposition. Márki-Zay is also a strong supporter of Tisza and Péter Magyar. Just a day ahead of the vote, KBE posted a video on social media with the caption ‘the local election will also have an impact on the national election!’ In the video, Molnár said that, with Tisza ‘strengthening nationwide’, change is coming; however, a Fidesz leadership in the town would use every means to ‘tackle’ that change.
According to the official results, turnout exceeded 50 per cent—an unusually high level for a by-election. Nagy secured victory with 47 per cent of the vote, defeating Molnár, who received 43 per cent, while the independent candidate garnered 9 per cent.
Breaking the Deadlock
With Nagy’s victory, the 6–6 deadlock in the local council may be broken, restoring decision-making capacity after months of paralysis. During that time, relations between Fidesz–KDNP and KBE representatives had deteriorated to the point that opposition councillors boycotted meetings, rendering the body unable to make binding decisions and creating prolonged uncertainty in the town’s governance.
One of the most serious flashpoints of the standoff occurred in September 2025, when the deadlock halted public catering services, leaving more than 1,400 children without school meals. The crisis was ultimately resolved with assistance from the Ministry of Interior and the involvement of the Tiszalök National Penitentiary Institution, which temporarily provided food for local schools and kindergartens.
‘In September 2025…the deadlock halted public catering services, leaving more than 1,400 children without school meals’
Tensions were also reflected in the campaign, with posters being vandalized and increasingly sharp personal attacks appearing on social media. ‘Today, Balmazújváros made its decision,’ Mayor Marina Varga said in a statement posted on social media on Sunday, adding that the people of the town had said no to violence and anarchy, and to the kind of ‘country of love’ promised by the opposition, ‘born of hatred and revenge’. ‘We defended our city, we defended our honour and our values. And in April, we will defend Hungary!’ she emphasized, referring to the upcoming parliamentary election.
With the governing parties now holding a clear majority in the council, decision-making may shift towards restoring political stability in Balmazújváros. Zoltán Nagy’s victory signals a further shift towards Fidesz in the town, as the governing party secured a constituency it had been unable to win in 2024.
Taking into consideration the involvement of national opposition actors and links to Tisza, the result contradicts the narrative promoted by opposition media and pollsters of Tisza’s confident nationwide advantage over Fidesz. In fact, since Tisza’s emergence in 2024, Fidesz has won seven by-elections—six local contests and one parliamentary seat. None of these elections, except the current one in Balmazújváros, ended with a Fidesz candidate receiving less than 50 per cent of the vote, including a 92 per cent victory by Sándorné Takács in Tiszafüred.
Welcoming the results, Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó took a sharp jab at analysts who ‘despise and hate’ Fidesz and believed that the opposition candidate backed by Tisza would win, saying that the by-election has ‘national significance’. ‘I agree with them—it does have national significance,’ Szijjártó wrote ironically.
‘Governing parties maintaining a stable lead over Tisza in late 2025, signalling that the overall electoral balance still tilts toward Fidesz despite a tightening contest’
Fidesz is also leading in several key constituencies ahead of the April vote, including Somogy County’s first constituency in Kaposvár. A January 2026 survey by Real-PR 93 found the Fidesz–KDNP candidate Attila Gelencsér leading with 42.3 per cent among decided voters, compared to 37.9 per cent for the Tisza candidate in the constituency. The hard-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) polls as high as 10 per cent.
The projected margin—narrower than in 2022 but still clearly favouring the governing side—suggests that, even accounting for statistical uncertainty, Fidesz is very likely to retain the Kaposvár seat in the next parliament. More broadly, national-level Real-PR 93 measurements have likewise shown the governing parties maintaining a stable lead over Tisza in late 2025, signalling that the overall electoral balance still tilts toward Fidesz despite a tightening contest.
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