German right-wing, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has increased its polling advantage over the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the first GMS survey published in 2026.
According to the poll, conducted between 13 December and 5 January, AfD is the most popular party nationwide, with support at 27 per cent—one percentage point higher than in the November survey and three percentage points ahead of the CDU.
The CDU’s coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), ranks third with 15 per cent, followed by the Greens at 12 per cent and The Left on 10 per cent.
Germany is preparing for several significant state elections in 2026, with AfD polling particularly strongly in a number of eastern and northern states. The highest-stakes contest is expected in Saxony-Anhalt, where recent surveys place AfD support at around 39–40 per cent, well ahead of the CDU’s roughly 26–27 per cent, raising the prospect that the party could emerge as the strongest political force in the state.
In Mecklenburg–Vorpommern, AfD is also polling competitively, frequently in the 29–38 per cent range and at times surpassing both the SPD and the CDU, signalling a consolidation of regional strength beyond its traditional core areas. Outside eastern Germany, AfD has also made notable gains in Rhineland-Palatinate, where polling in the high teens to low twenties places it well ahead of traditional opposition parties, underscoring the party’s expanding influence as the regional campaign season approaches.
Recent polling further suggests that a clear majority of Germans expect at least one AfD-led state government by 2026, with a substantial share anticipating the emergence of an AfD state premier.
Despite being the largest party nationally according to consistent polling over recent months, AfD continues to face significant structural obstacles in Germany’s political system. The party remains subject to a so-called ‘firewall’ maintained by mainstream parties to exclude AfD from power. Although this firewall showed signs of cracking last year amid mounting pressure on the CDU to adopt firmer policies on mass migration, the political mainstream continues to invest substantial effort in isolating AfD from legislative processes and governance. AfD has also been designated an ‘extremist’ party ‘not compatible with free democracy’, a classification that grants the security services expanded powers to monitor and investigate it.
AfD has become a recurring point of tension between the second Trump administration and the government of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as Washington has repeatedly spoken out against what it views as serious infringements on freedom of expression and political rights.
Most recently, the German outlet Der Spiegel reported that the Trump administration is considering targeted sanctions against senior officials of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), which is responsible for AfD’s surveillance. According to the report, frustration within the US administration has been building for months over the use of intelligence powers against a democratically supported opposition party. The report came just weeks after Washington announced targeted sanctions on EU officials, including former Commissioner Thierry Breton, over alleged censorship of US tech platforms and the suppression of free speech.
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