Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz–KDNP alliance is steadily leading less than two months before the upcoming parliamentary election, according to a recently published survey by the Nézőpont Institute.
According to the data, published on 25 February, if the election were held this Sunday, the governing parties’ list would receive 45 per cent of the vote, while the main opposition party, Tisza, would secure 40 per cent.
The Nézőpont Institute’s data predict one more party to pass the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold: hard-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk), which would receive 8 per cent of the vote.
The results were shared by Director General of the Budapest-based think tank Centre for Fundamental Rights Miklós Szánthó on X, who pointed out that Fidesz stands for ‘peace, defending Hungary’s national interests and energy sovereignty amid mounting pressure from Kyiv and political maneuvering in Brussels’.
Hungary’s energy security and its relations with Ukraine have taken centre stage in the campaign, as Orbán’s government—and Slovakia—accuse Kyiv of deliberately halting oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline, despite there being no technical obstacles to restarting the key route. According to government officials, Kyiv and Brussels are acting together to put pressure on Hungary in the final phase of the election campaign, interfering in support of the Hungarian opposition.
Druzhba delivers a significant portion of both Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy imports, with supplies having been halted since 27 January. In response, Orbán announced last Friday that Hungary will block the €90 billion loan—agreed by EU leaders in December 2025, with Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary opting out—until Ukraine resumes transit on Druzhba.
‘Hungary’s energy security and its relations with Ukraine have taken centre stage in the campaign’
The move follows coordinated steps by Budapest and Bratislava, including halting diesel exports to Kyiv. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also warned that Slovakia would cut electricity exports to Ukraine if transit is not restored, while Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó blocked the 20th sanctions package at Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council.
Citing intelligence reports, Orbán also ordered reinforced protection of critical energy infrastructure, including troop deployments and a drone ban in the border region of Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county over the risk of potential sabotage. ‘I have ordered reinforced protection of critical infrastructure, troop deployment where necessary, increased police presence, and a drone ban in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county,’ he said, stressing that ‘Hungary cannot be blackmailed’.
The Nézőpont Institute published its survey on the same day as opposition pollster Medián released entirely contradictory data, showing the Tisza party with a 20 percentage point lead over the governing Fidesz–KDNP alliance (55 per cent to 35 per cent).
Hungarian opposition pollsters have a track record of significant inaccuracies, often underpolling Fidesz while overstating support for its challengers. Publicus, for example, missed the outcome of the 2022 parliamentary election by 20 percentage points. Medián itself underestimated Fidesz by 7 points in its final pre-election survey, while Orbán’s party ultimately secured a 20-point victory, winning 54.1 per cent against 34.1 per cent for the united opposition.
The Centre for Fundamental Rights has also published monthly party-preference estimates since October 2025, and its latest data coincide with Nézőpont’s findings. According to the survey published on 17 February, Fidesz–KDNP’s list would secure 49 per cent of the vote, while Tisza trails at 42 per cent.
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