A recent poll conducted by French polling institute Odoxa shows right-wing leader Jordan Bardella securing victory in every possible scenario in the 2027 presidential election in France.
The president of National Rally (RN) would receive around 35–36 per cent in the first round, depending on his opponents, according to the survey conducted on a sample of 1,000 respondents between 19 and 20 November. In the second round, Bardella would secure victory in every scenario. According to Odoxa, Bardella would defeat far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon by a margin of 48 percentage points, 74 to 26.
While this is the widest gap, none of the theoretical matchups would be close. Bardella would beat former prime minister Édouard Philippe, leader of the centrist bloc, with 53 per cent of the vote against 47 per cent. The 30-year-old RN leader would defeat socialist Raphaël Glucksmann by an even larger margin, 58 to 42 per cent, while former prime minister and ally of President Emmanuel Macron, Gabriel Attal, would secure 44 per cent against Bardella’s 56 in a hypothetical second round. The poll’s margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.
Whether Bardella will run as National Rally’s presidential candidate remains an open question. At present, he is the most likely—and effectively the only—viable option for the party, as its former president Marine Le Pen was barred from holding public office for five years in March 2025. Her appeal trial is scheduled for early 2026, between 13 January and 12 February.
The Odoxa poll is far from the only result indicating that National Rally and Bardella lead the mainstream parties. As Hungarian Conservative reported earlier in November, a survey by Elabe showed Bardella securing a first-round victory with 35–37.5 per cent of the vote.
However, more than a year remains until the actual election. As Odoxa noted, ‘being the overwhelming favourite in a presidential election several months before it takes place is no guarantee of success.’ In the past, Marine Le Pen and her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, both faced broad political alliances that defeated them three times in the second round of presidential elections. The same dynamic reappeared in the legislative elections in July 2024, preventing RN from securing a majority in the National Assembly.
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