The situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense, with escalatory developments taking place one after the other. This week, Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a precision strike. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered a direct attack on Israel.
President of the European People’s Party Manfred Weber is urging EU Member States to respond to the Hungarian worker visa changes with the strictest possible measures. Starting 8 July, Belarusian and Russian workers, along with nationals of six other countries, will be able to enter and work in Hungary under relaxed conditions. This move has infuriated the famously anti-Hungarian Weber, who claims it threatens the entire Schengen area. The European Commission has the power to suspend a state’s Schengen membership, although this has never happened before.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated in a recent interview that a point has been reached where starting negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine can no longer be postponed. Stubb’s statement echoes the proposals of Viktor Orbán, which the Hungarian Prime Minister submitted to European Council President Charles Michel following his peace mission in early July.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has nominated Olivér Várhelyi, the current Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, as the next Commissioner for Hungary in the new European Commission. Várhelyi’s task will not be easy, as he has experienced numerous conflicts with the European Parliament over the past five years. Additionally, pro-war factions will likely do everything in their power to derail the Hungarian candidate’s nomination process.
After Kyiv failed to restore the uninterrupted transit of Russian Lukoil’s oil shipments to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that Bratislava might stop diesel supplies to Ukraine. Slovak deliveries account for a tenth of Ukraine’s diesel consumption.
The threat of escalation in the Middle East is growing following Saturday’s deadly strike by Hezbollah on an Israeli-controlled settlement in the Golan Heights. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has even gone so far as to threaten Israel with an invasion.
Biden’s abrupt exit from the presidential race and anointment of Vice President Kamala Harris as his would-be successor has certainly left world leaders in disarray—not that they were not expecting it, given the obvious lack of both physical stamina and mental acuity of the US president. Regardless, as they continue to grapple with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, an escalation in the Middle East, and a more emphatic China, world leaders are contemplating if there will be a second Trump’s ‘America First’ administration or a continuity of Biden’s ‘America is Back’ through Kamala Harris.
After Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on Wednesday that Ukraine was ready to negotiate with Russia if Moscow ‘acts in good faith’, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded on Thursday that Russia was willing to negotiate with Ukraine even if Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains president. Viktor Orbán’s peace mission has undoubtedly contributed to these positive developments towards peace, and the Hungarian Prime Minister could play a crucial role in mediating further talks.
For the fourth consecutive year, the European Commission has published its annual report on the rule of law, which comes with few surprises. In addition to Hungary, Brussels is now concerned about the rule of law in Slovakia and Italy, which is unsurprising given that both Member States have governments prioritizing national interests. Poland, on the other hand, has fallen off the EU’s ‘bad guy’ list since Brussels’ favourite, Donald Tusk, came to power. This year’s report leads to a single conclusion: the Commission views the rule of law as a tool for political and financial blackmail.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia if Moscow acts in good faith, following his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Kuleba’s visit to China sheds new light on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s peace mission: Orbán could play an important role in organizing the next peace conference, where Kyiv would welcome Russia’s participation.