Real estate developer and reality TV show star Donald Trump was given very little chance by mainstream journalists and pollsters in 2016. However, by focusing on illegal immigration and standing up against the new ‘woke’ PC activists at the time, he managed to pull off one of the greatest upset victories in a presidential election in American history.
For the first time since early August, President Donald Trump is leading the national polling aggregate by RealClearPolitics over Vice President Kamala Harris. His current lead is just 0.2 points. However, he was underestimated by pollsters in the popular vote in both cycles he ran, in 2016 and 2020 as well.
The Brazil-based polling firm AtlasIntel, which got the popular vote margins right by 0.3 points in the last two election cycles in the United States, has released its latest national vote prediction for the 2024 US presidential election. It shows President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.7 points, a slight shift towards Harris since their last release in mid-September.
‘The U.S. has dramatically evolved since its founding, when tariffs were the only source of revenue for the federal government. Despite the higher costs falling on American consumers and the harms to U.S. employment and production, especially in the manufacturing sector, both the Trump campaign and the Biden–Harris administration have continued to defend the trade war tariffs.’
Most major international sportsbooks give President Trump and Vice President Harris the same odds for victory in the upcoming US Presidential election, while traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket think Donald Trump is the slight favourite—this is where we are right now, less than 30 days away from the final decision.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 12.26 per cent annually on average under President Trump’s four years in office, as opposed to the 9 per cent average annual growth under President Biden, as per the closing of the last quarter. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index, comprising 1.950 smaller-cap companies, still has not returned to its all-time high recorded in November 2021.
Atlas Intel has gotten the popular vote margins correct within 0.3 percentage points in the US in the last two election cycles. Their most recent polling data has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 2.9 points in the popular vote; while their swing state polling data has him winning the election with 290 electoral votes. However, other public opinion firms have published different results.
58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh pointed a rifle at President Trump while he was golfing at his Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida but Secret Service agents thwarted the assassination attempt. Routh, apprehended by the police shortly after the incident, is an avid supporter of Ukraine and has apparently attempted to recruit volunteers to fight against Russia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual speech at Tusványos, where he discussed the war in Ukraine, the peace mission, the changing world order, and the upcoming US presidential elections. He stated that Donald Trump is the only chance for the United States to maintain its supremacy.
‘Thanks be to God He did not let them kill him,’ said the Hungarian prime minister in his regular public radio interview this morning. Viktor Orbán expressed hope that this means God has plans for the president.