In his latest election prognosis, Hungarian government-critical political analyst Gábor Török has predicted a narrow victory for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the governing parties in 2026.
According to Török, despite several polls showing the opposition Respect and Freedom (Tisza) party in the lead, Fidesz–KDNP may benefit from superiority in resources, experienced candidates, and an advantage in shaping the political agenda.
‘The pro-government superiority in terms of resources, the opposition party’s postponement of its candidate nominations—which carries significant risks—and the government’s as yet unknown but highly likely effective and powerful campaign, potentially supplemented by financial incentives—all things considered, it is currently more likely that Fidesz will win the election in April with a narrow majority,’ Török wrote on social media. He noted that for the prognosis to change, Tisza would need to establish a clear and undeniable advantage. ‘They would need to perform successfully in the nomination process, the agenda battle, and the competition for perceived competence in the upcoming period.’
The analyst also provided a detailed assessment of the factors that could determine the outcome of next year’s election. He observed that in Hungary’s 106 single-member constituencies, Fidesz’s candidates are experienced, trained, and loyal politicians. Török noted that some candidates may even be replaced as the party adapts to the new political landscape. By contrast, Tisza has not yet announced its candidates, and there is a significant risk that some of their prospective nominees could struggle under the pressures of the campaign.
Regarding control over the political agenda, Török highlighted that Fidesz has repeatedly demonstrated success in steering public debates towards its own priorities. He added that Viktor Orbán’s party has proven to be extremely effective and formidable in campaign situations. Meanwhile, Tisza has succeeded in drawing attention to anomalies in the functioning of the state; however, Török noted that the party would need to involve new, credible figures and demonstrate governmental competence in addressing these issues.
Finally, Török stated that no radical changes—either improvements or deteriorations—are expected in Hungary’s economic situation before the election that would significantly shift the current balance of power. ‘At the same time, the government may be able to improve the “mood” of voter groups with targeted programmes,’ Török concluded.
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