The latest collapse of the French government could bring long-unseen changes to the political status quo of the European Union. With one of its most influential member states trapped in a deep political crisis for more than a year, right-wing forces across Europe eagerly await President Emmanuel Macron’s decision on whether he will call yet another snap election—with the strong possibility that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally will form a government. Such a development would be unprecedented and would send a clear signal to the continent’s mainstream elites: the will of the people is now strong enough to break their grip.
Allies Turned Against Macron
After his cabinet was sworn in on Sunday evening, 5 October, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu submitted his resignation the next morning, making his government the fastest to collapse in the history of the Fifth Republic. In the 24 hours since, Macron has appeared increasingly isolated—seen walking alone on the banks of the Seine, according to Politico Brussels—making no official statement and preparing for a difficult decision.
His allies are not making his position any easier. Gabriel Attal, former prime minister and one of Macron’s long-time confidants, declared on television on Monday that he ‘no longer understands [Macron’s] decisions.’ On Tuesday, Macron’s first prime minister and likely contender in the 2027 presidential race, Édouard Philippe, said the president should resign before the end of his term, framing it as the only way out of France’s escalating political crisis.
In reality, Macron has few options left. Both his Ensemble alliance and his personal approval ratings are sinking. Voters across the political spectrum are fed up with a seemingly endless cycle of failed administrations. For now, Macron appears to have chosen the safest course: he tasked Lecornu with leading last-ditch talks until Wednesday. If those fail—as seems almost certain—Macron ‘will face up to his responsibilities,’ one of his advisors told French media. That could mean calling fresh elections or even stepping down—the last president to resign was Charles de Gaulle in 1969.
Already in Campaign Mode
The likeliest outcome is another snap election. Ironically, Macron’s own snap election in 2024 created the current deadlock, which has now produced three government resignations in little more than a year. At the time, he called the vote to check the rise of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Today, RN is the country’s largest party, leading the leftist NFP coalition by ten points, while Macron’s Ensemble languishes in third place, 20 points behind RN.
Immediately after Lecornu’s resignation, RN shifted into campaign mode. Le Pen, Bardella, and their top advisors convened an emergency meeting at party headquarters in Paris to discuss strategy, communications, and resource allocation. ‘We are ready to govern,’ Bardella said as he left the meeting.
RN has already helped topple two governments in recent months and has signalled that it will do the same with any future cabinet Macron tries to install before elections. Eric Ciotti, leader of the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR)—allied with RN—announced that his deputies and those of RN had unanimously agreed to attempt to bring down any government proposed by Macron ahead of new elections.
A Victory for the European Right
If RN and its allies perform strongly in a snap election, they could finally break the parliamentary deadlock. However, this outcome is not guaranteed. Last year’s elections showed that the broader left and Macron’s centrists can unite against RN in the second round. Yet the Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise have since fallen out, and whether they can overcome their divisions in time is far from clear.
Still, if RN were to win and Jordan Bardella became prime minister, it would mark a historic breakthrough for the European right. RN is the largest party in Patriots for Europe (PfE)—the right-wing European political group co-founded by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—which already ranks as the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament. Having the French prime minister among its ranks would give PfE enormous influence. With Andrej Babiš’s ANO party having just secured a landslide victory in the Czech elections, PfE could have four governing parties among its members by the end of 2025—double its current number.
An RN-led government in France would also bring seismic changes to the country’s migration policy, its stance on the war in Ukraine, and its position regarding the conflict in Gaza—altering not only France but the entire balance of European politics. As Jordan Bardella aptly remarked on his way to Strasbourg yesterday to take part in the debate on the censure motions against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: ‘France is in the process of freeing itself from Macronism; it is time to break with Macron’s Europe as well.’
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