Liberal-centrist D66 might have narrowly won the highly contested parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, securing 16.9 per cent of the vote with more than 99 per cent counted. Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) finished second by only 0.2 percentage point, at 16.7, losing significant support compared to the 2023 election, when PVV became the largest party with 23.5 per cent.
Voter turnout remained high, roughly 78 per cent, nearly identical to 2023. Both PVV and D66 received about 1.7 million votes in the country of 16.6 million, according to Dutch News, meaning each would secure 26 seats in the 150-member Tweede Kamer. That represents a major setback for PVV, which won 37 mandates in 2023. With 16.9 per cent, D66 could become the first election winner in Dutch history with such a low share of the vote.
The liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is projected to finish third with 22 seats, while Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks–PvdA (Green–Left–Labour alliance) is expected to win 20 mandates, falling short of expectations. Timmermans resigned following the results. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) finished fifth with 18 seats.
‘The PVV wants to take the lead in coalition talks if we become the largest party,’ Geert Wilders wrote on X on Thursday morning. He stressed that as long as no official results are confirmed, his party will not allow D66 to begin coalition talks. ‘We will do everything to prevent this,’ he concluded.
Parliamentary Chairman Martin Bosma, a PVV MP, said on Thursday he would not start the coalition process until the final result is confirmed. That figure, including an estimated 90,000 expat votes, will not be known until Monday evening. Given the high degree of fragmentation in parliament, analysts expect months-long negotiations to form a governing coalition. The first step will be to appoint a verkenner (scout), whose task is to canvass all 15 parties on who should form the government and whether they are willing to join it.
Analysts anticipate the formation of a broad ‘middle coalition’ led by D66 and potentially joined by VVD, CDA, and GroenLinks–PvdA. Another possible outcome is a moderate, right-leaning coalition with D66, VVD, and CDA. Most major parties have already ruled out cooperation with PVV, leaving Wilders’ chances of forming a government extremely slim.
The previous government—comprising PVV, VVD, the centre-right New Social Contract (NSC), and the farmers’ party (BBB)—collapsed in June after coalition partners rejected Wilders’ ten-point plan to address the crisis of uncontrolled mass migration. PVV demanded sweeping reforms, including a halt to asylum applications and large-scale repatriation. When partners refused, PVV withdrew its ministers, costing the coalition its majority and dropping it below the 76-seat threshold required in the 150-seat House of Representatives. Prime Minister Schoof subsequently submitted his cabinet’s resignation, leaving the government in a caretaker capacity until the election.
PVV’s setback is a step back for the European right as well. In November 2023 Geert Wilders’ party stood at the forefront of a continental rise of patriotic movements. With Andrej Babiš’s ANO returning to power in Czechia, right-wing parties now lead polls in Germany, France, Italy, Austria, and the United Kingdom. Yet the Netherlands’ example shows that getting into government may have been the easier part of the task. Bringing about real change is the harder one, even with a popular mandate.
Wilders was elected to pursue drastic reforms on mass migration and its strain on Dutch society and welfare system, yet in such a fragile political ecosystem, transformative change proved elusive as mainstream and progressive forces mounted an effective pushback.
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