According to a study published by the Hungarian Ministry for European Union Affairs, over the 20-year period between 2004 and 2024, Hungary received a net of 73 billion EUR in EU funds. The report draws attention to the fact that since 2022, Ukraine has received about three times this amount from Brussels and the Member States: 193 billion EUR. On top of these funds comes 90 billion EUR, a loan that 24 Member States (ie, EU countries excluding Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia) decided to borrow for Ukraine. From this loan, 60 billion EUR will go towards financing the country’s military, and the rest towards its other budgetary needs. Furthermore, the European Commission also pitched to support Ukraine with an additional 360 billion from the EU’s next 7-year budget.
This is far from all the support the EU is ready to give Ukraine. Recently, the European Commission’s strategy for Ukraine’s long-term EU financing was leaked to the press. The plan is essentially a blueprint on how to execute Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s so-called ‘Ukrainian Welfare Plan’ that the president unveiled about a month ago. It seeks an additional 800 billion USD in investment for the reconstruction of the war-torn country. The plan initially presented by the Ukrainian leadership is at the heart of the European Commission’s leaked working paper, too—in late January, the Berlaymont gave leaders of the 27 EU nations an 18-page document on how to deliver on Kyiv’s demands. What is more, the Commission’s plan added 700 billion USD for military expenses on top of Ukraine’s 800 billion USD reconstruction demand.
The 700 plus 800 billion USD plan only exacerbated Hungary’s fears about how much more this war will cost European taxpayers—an issue Budapest has been drawing attention to over the past months. Hungary’s share of EU contributions to Ukraine was so far calculated based on the country’s GNI key—that is, Hungary is liable to pay 1.2 per cent of any amount the Commission suggests transferring to Kyiv. In case the Commission is ready to pay the entirety of Ukraine’s demand (without involving third countries, international institutions or private capital), Hungary could be asked to contribute up to 18 billion USD to Ukraine’s ‘reconstruction’ and ‘prosperity’.
For comparison, in 2024, Hungary’s GDP was around 200 billion USD. Even if Budapest was required to pay out this amount in the span of ten years—the suggested timeframe by President Zelenskyy—Hungary’s annual contribution to Ukraine could be an amount comparable to 0,5–1 per cent of the country’s GDP. Budapest could not finance this without raising taxes and placing the burden of Ukraine’s ‘reconstruction’ on the shoulders of Hungarian families. Financing Kyiv ‘will destroy the European Union,’ commented on these plans Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Ukraine’s EU Admission by 2027?
Beyond the above-outlined aid packages, the European Commission is also working on Ukraine’s fast-tracked admission to the EU. As a Member State, Kyiv could gain access to even more funds through Brussels cohesion and agricultural subsidies. That is, when calculating the possible cost of the war, it must also be taken into account that the European Commission already treats Ukraine’s accession to the EU as a settled fact, which, according to information available to the media, is ‘scheduled’ to take place in 2027.
Beyond the detailed financial burden, the plans for Ukraine’s fast-tracked EU accession also raise rule-of-law concerns about the functioning of the European Union. According to the Treaties, it is the right and obligation of Member States to unanimously decide which countries can join the European Union, and therefore, accession is neither a purely bureaucratic step nor the decision of the European Commission.
‘Forcing Ukraine into the European Union without democratic legitimacy, in violation of the Treaties, would be a gross mistake’
There is also an issue with the European Commission setting out an exact date, 2027, as Ukraine’s year of accession. As often emphasized, enlargement should be a ‘merit-based process’ which is not compatible with Ukraine’s apparent certainty that it will join the EU in 2027. What real incentive does Kyiv have to adopt the necessary reforms before joining the EU if it will undoubtedly become an EU Member State? If the European Commission truly believed that enlargement is a merit-based procedure, Ukraine’s pathway to the EU would not be accelerated, nor would it have a pre-set accession deadline.
Crucially, the decision to fast-track Ukraine’s EU membership also lacks democratic legitimacy. According to a survey by Századvég, only 18 per cent of Europe’s adult population would support Ukraine’s immediate admission to the EU. 32 per cent categorically reject Kyiv’s accession plans. 43 per cent of respondents believe that the Union should follow the traditional, merit-based procedure when considering Ukraine’s bid for EU membership. Forcing Ukraine into the European Union without democratic legitimacy, in violation of the Treaties, would be a gross mistake.
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