Germany’s right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has overtaken the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in a new poll by the Forsa Institute for Social Research and Statistical Analysis, published on 12 August. According to the results, Alice Weidel’s party leads with 26 per cent, two points ahead of the CDU on 24 per cent.
AfD last surpassed the CDU in April, during coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD), but the current gap is the widest since the snap elections in February 2025. According to POLITICO Brussels, the Forsa poll suggests that Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while focusing on foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine and Europe’s relations with the United States under President Donald Trump, is facing growing discontent at home. 67 per cent of Germans said they were ‘not happy’ with his performance after 100 days in office.
The trend is mirrored elsewhere in Europe. In Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl—co-founder of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) alliance alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—continues to dominate polling. According to PolitPro’s aggregation, FPÖ leads by more than 10 points in every credible survey, standing at 34–35 per cent, compared to the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) on 21–22 per cent. Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary elections saw FPÖ win the largest share of the vote, but coalition talks with ÖVP failed, resulting in a government formed by ÖVP, the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) and the liberal NEOS.
In France, POLITICO Brussels notes, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) also holds a commanding lead. Now led by Jordan Bardella—effectively the party’s presidential candidate after Le Pen was barred from running in March—RN polls at around 33 per cent, well ahead of the united left’s New Popular Front on 21 per cent and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance on 15.5 per cent. A June 2025 Odoxa–Mascaret barometer for Public Sénat found both Le Pen and Bardella rank highest in public favourability—each garnering 36 per cent favourable opinions. An April Elabe poll also placed RN first for the 2027 presidential election, projecting Bardella at 31–35.5 per cent in the first round.
Across the Channel, the UK’s political landscape is also shifting. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has overtaken both Labour and the Conservatives in polling. In the May 2025 local elections, the party achieved a Projected National Share (PNS) of around 30 per cent—topping the national vote and outperforming the two major parties, a milestone not seen since PNS tracking began, potentially signalling a seismic change to Britain’s long-standing two-party system.
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