Republicans in the United States are in a state of elation right now, in the wake of the peace deal in the Middle East and the release of the Israeli hostages brokered by President Trump. No reasonable observer can deny that it is a massive victory for the President—as long as the relative tranquillity remains in the region.
How much political capital does this grant the GOP? Well, in just a few weeks, we have elections in two large states that could give us some indications.
In Virginia, incumbent Governor Glenn Youngkin is a ‘victim’ of his state’s unique one-term limit. It is quite unfortunate for Republicans, as Governor Youngkin maintains a decent level of popularity among his constituency. However, it is also the one-term limit that allowed him to get into the Governor’s Mansion in 2021 in the first place.
His Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Sears, is taking on Democrat challenger Abigail Spanberger for the open seat. Sears is trailing by 6.5 points in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate right now, and is widely expected to lose. Traders on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket give Spanberger a 94 per cent chance for victory—while that seems like an overvalued position, it does not change the fact that Sears most likely is going to lose indeed.
However, there is a statewide race in the Old Dominion where the Republican candidate is the favourite. State Attorney General elections rarely get much attention ahead of time, as they are generally expected to go the same way as the gubernatorial election. What can change this, however, if one of the candidates’ text messages get publicly exposed in which they wish death upon their political opponent and their children…
This is exactly what happened to Democrat Jay Jones, thus now the Republican incumbent Jason Miyares (the one-term limit does apply to the AG) is the favourite both in polling and in the betting markets.
Over in New Jersey, GOP voters had high hopes for their man, Jack Ciattarelli, in his second quest for the governorship, against Mikie Sherrill of the Democratic Party. That too is an open seat, as Democrat Governor Phil Murphy is about to serve out his second term. Sherill has also been hit with a number of scandals, ranging from cheating in her time at the Naval Academy to a more recent nepotism scandal.
The optimism has been somewhat dampened by Rassmussen Reports, one of the few right-leaning firms in the American polling industry, putting out a poll showing Sherill up by six points against Ciattarelli. In the RCP aggregate, the Democrat Congresswoman leads by four points as of now—which, to some consolation to Republicans, is less than what Ciattarelli was underestimated by in the same polling average when he ran in 2021. Still, bettors on Polymarket are putting their money on Sherill, who has an 81 per cent chance to win on the site.
So, does that mean that Democrats will likely win both gubernatorial races this year? Yes. Is that a major issue for the Republicans? No.
The two states holding governors’ elections this year are two that voted for Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election by around 6 points each, about 7.5 points left of the national popular vote, which was Trump +1.5.
Furthermore, off-year elections typically favour the out-of-power parties. That is especially true for the Democrats in the Trump era, as President Trump has the advantage with the so-called ‘low-propensity voters’, those who typically only turn up for presidential elections. This is what partly led to the disappointing underperformance in the 2022 midterms for the Republicans as well.
‘Does that mean that Democrats will likely win both gubernatorial races this year? Yes. Is that a major issue for the Republicans? No.’
What the GOP should watch in the two elections this year in Virginia and New Jersey is the margins. If they can keep both elections within a couple of points of the 2024 presidential results, that would show electoral strength for President Trump and his presumptive successor, Vice President JD Vance.
The Republicans will be in a very similar situation in the off-year elections of 2027, just a year before the next presidential election. Three reliably red states—Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky—will be holding their governors’ elections. In Kentucky, incumbent Democrat governor Andy Beshear, son of a former popular Democrat governor in the state, is term-limited, thus it will be an easy pickup opportunity for the GOP. So, while Democrats will start the second Trump term with a 2/2 sweep in off-year gubernatorial elections, Republicans will likely finish it with a 3/3 sweep of their own.
What’s more, there are some important metrics that should give additional confidence to President Trump.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.67 per cent year-to-date, as of before market open on 14 October. That is up significantly from the negative 13 per-cent lows of ‘liberation day’ in early April. The threat of a second wave of punitive tariffs on China by President Trump triggered sell-offs in the stock market last Friday, but those losses were largely recovered on Monday, after temperatures cooled, and it seems that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China is still on in South Korea later this month. Gas prices have been falling again, staying lower than last year on the same date throughout the year. The average gallon of gas sells for $3.076 a gallon in the US, according to AAA.
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