Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is leading the opposition Tisza party, according to a new poll by McLaughlin & Associates, the polling firm of former US President Donald Trump. The results of this independent survey differ significantly from those of Hungarian opposition-linked institutes, which in recent weeks have consistently shown Tisza in the lead.
At the request of Hungarian outlet Index, US-based McLaughlin & Associates conducted a party-preference survey on a sample of 1,000 voters between 10 and 14 September via telephone, focusing on likely voters. The poll asked respondents who they would support if elections were held this Sunday.
According to the results, Fidesz–KDNP currently stands at 43 per cent, while the Tisza Party would receive 37 per cent. Three other parties would cross the parliamentary threshold: Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) at 6 per cent, and both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) at 5 per cent each. Other parties together account for 1 per cent, while 3 per cent of respondents remain undecided or refused to answer.
‘Fidesz–KDNP currently stands at 43 per cent, while the Tisza Party would receive 37 per cent’
As for prime ministerial preferences, 45 per cent said they would prefer Viktor Orbán, compared to 36 per cent for Péter Magyar. Another 19 per cent would choose someone else, were undecided, or refused to answer.
The survey also asked voters who they considered more likely to win, regardless of their own preferences. A majority, 51 per cent, expect Viktor Orbán to prevail, while 41 per cent think Péter Magyar will become the next prime minister. 8 per cent did not know or declined to respond.
Opinions on Péter Magyar were also examined. 62 per cent agreed with the statement that he is too hot-headed, too left-wing, and too risky, while 35 per cent disagreed. A majority (52 per cent) also believe that he ‘loves himself more than the Hungarian people,’ while 43 per cent rejected this view. On the statement that he cannot be trusted because in government he would not do what he promises, 51 per cent agreed, 44 per cent disagreed, and 5 per cent were undecided or refused to answer.
‘A majority (52 per cent) also believe that he “loves himself more than the Hungarian people”’
The McLaughlin results stand in sharp contrast to Hungarian opposition pollsters, who measured a clear Tisza lead in recent weeks. According to Medián’s early September survey, Tisza had a 13-point advantage among decided voters, 51 per cent versus 38 per cent. Data published by ATV showed Tisza at 32 per cent and Fidesz–KDNP at 26 per cent among all respondents. Publicus measured a 46–37 ratio in favour of Tisza among decided voters. Meanwhile, IDEA’s July–August survey indicated a slight increase in Fidesz’s popularity but still put Tisza’s lead at around seven percentage points.
The poll was directed by John McLaughlin, a professional strategist and pollster with over 40 years of experience. Over the course of his career, he has worked for some of America’s most successful companies. Since 2011, he has served as advisor and pollster to President Donald Trump, participating in all three of Trump’s presidential campaigns.
His work has been recognized with Telly Awards and PR Week Campaign Awards. John McLaughlin holds a BA from Fordham College and an MBA from Fordham University in finance and quantitative methods. He is also a member of MENSA and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates.
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