Hungarian Conservative

For Hungary, this is an unmitigated disaster. While Robert Fico’s return to power in Slovakia offers some reason for optimism, Hungary’s northern neighbours certainly will not replace the Poles as steadfast, influential allies in Europe.

‘Once the power transition issue subsides, revenge is likely to become a central issue in Polish politics. Among the presumed incoming government’s proposals are journalistic purges and political show-trials, precisely the sort of banana-republic behavior anti-PiS voices have long alleged on the part of the outgoing government.’

Duda justified his decision to entrust Morawiecki with forming the government by stating that he is following the good parliamentary tradition, which gives the winning party the first opportunity to do so. He also mentioned that in accordance with the constitution, if the first attempt at forming a government fails, a second round will involve an absolute majority vote in the lower house of the parliament.

On the European level, the representatives of Poland and Slovakia often share concerns and vote together with Hungary, especially Poland—at least, it did so until now. While Bratislava is most likely to develop even closer cooperation with Budapest with Fico’s victory, Warsaw will most certainly cease to be the staunch ally it used to be.

Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS leader, described the results as a great success, emphasizing that his party has now won parliamentary elections for the fourth time in its history and the third consecutive time. He added, however, that whether PiS will be able to form a government remains a question.

‘According to recent polls, neither United Right nor Civic Platform will be able to form a government on its own…Donald Tusk’s situation seems easier in that he may have a realistic chance of including both the aforementioned Lewica and the Third Way alliance in the future governing coalition. This does not mean, however, that it would be easy for him to govern with these parties, and indeed such multi-party coalitions—let us not forget that the KO is itself an alliance—are often not very stable and long-lived.’

While Prime Minister Morawiecki stated at PiS’s last congress before the 15 October elections in Katowice that Polish voters would in less than two weeks decide whether Poland becomes a ‘European land, a European province,’ or remains a sovereign country, a large opposition rally was held in Warsaw.

Kyiv stayed true to its doubtful reputation and promised ‘appropriate responses’ to the three V4 countries extending their ban on Ukrainian agri-food imports. ‘If the decisions of our neighbours are not neighbourly, Ukraine will respond in a civilized manner,’ Zelensky said.

The confetti cannon has been fired and the Polish campaign is officially underway: at the beginning of August, President Andrzej Duda set 15 October as the date for the parliamentary elections, an event that is making not only the Poles but also Hungarians hold their breath.