Hungarian Conservative

‘The Visegrad Group has reached a tipping point in the face of growing geopolitical and security challenges. The external and internal dynamics of the regional alliance of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia have encountered obstacles where the need for unity clashes with competing views, aims, and pressures.’

Local elections are an important episode in the power play for the leadership of the two largest parties in Poland. After the ultimate defeat of his party in the general election Jarosław Kaczyński came under heavy criticism, with demands that he resign and take responsibility for the electoral failure. PiS coming out on top on 7 April is expected to silence these voices and stabilize Kaczyński’s position.

‘An optimistic scenario is that the coming years in opposition would be used by conservative forces in Poland similarly to what Viktor Orbán and his camp did during the years 2002–2010 spent in opposition.’

‘According to recent polls, neither United Right nor Civic Platform will be able to form a government on its own…Donald Tusk’s situation seems easier in that he may have a realistic chance of including both the aforementioned Lewica and the Third Way alliance in the future governing coalition. This does not mean, however, that it would be easy for him to govern with these parties, and indeed such multi-party coalitions—let us not forget that the KO is itself an alliance—are often not very stable and long-lived.’

While Prime Minister Morawiecki stated at PiS’s last congress before the 15 October elections in Katowice that Polish voters would in less than two weeks decide whether Poland becomes a ‘European land, a European province,’ or remains a sovereign country, a large opposition rally was held in Warsaw.

The confetti cannon has been fired and the Polish campaign is officially underway: at the beginning of August, President Andrzej Duda set 15 October as the date for the parliamentary elections, an event that is making not only the Poles but also Hungarians hold their breath.