Primary Model Gives President Biden 75 Per Cent Chance for Victory in 2024 — Is ‘Old Joe’ Really Cruising to Reelection?

Based on his primary model, political scientist Helmut Norpoth gives incumbent Joe Biden of the Democratic Party a 75 per cent chance for re-election. However, the same model was widely inaccurate in 2020, giving Donald Trump a 91 per cent chance of becoming president again. Its 2024 forecast again goes against aggregate polling data and consensus in the news and betting industry.